气候变化对广东省香蕉种植气候适宜性的影响

Impacts of climate change on climatic suitability of banana planting in Guangdong Province,China

为探讨气候变化对广东省香蕉种植气候适宜性的影响,分析了1961—2022年广东86个国家气象站年平均气温(T_(y))、≥10℃年积温(T_(a))、1月平均最低气温(T_(1))、年极端最低气温(T_(min))和日最低气温≤5℃天数(D≤5℃),以此为评价指标分析了1961—1990年、1971—2000年、1981—2010年、1991—2020年、年平均气温突变前(1961—1997年)及突变后(1998—2022年)等6个气候时段广东省香蕉种植气候适宜性的变化。结果表明:1961—2022年,广东T_(y)、T_(a)、T_(1)和T_(min)分别以0.2℃·10 a^(-1)、80.7℃·d·10 a^(-1)、0.4℃·10 a^(-1)和0.4℃·10 a^(-1)的速率显著上升,T_(y)于1997年发生了突变,D≤5℃以1.5 d·10 a^(-1)的速率显著下降;T_(y)、T_(a)和T_(min)呈南高北低、平原高山区低的特点,D≤5℃呈南部沿海少、北部山区多的空间分布,T_(1)除粤北高寒山区外大多满足香蕉越冬的热量要求。广东省香蕉种植气候区划分为最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区:最适宜区集中在粤西,适宜区主要分布在粤东和珠三角南部,次适宜区主要位于珠三角北部和粤北的南部地区,不适宜区主要分布在粤北的北部。受气候变化影响,广东省香蕉种植气候最适宜区明显北扩东移,适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区面积有所缩减;与1961—1990年相比,1991—2020年广东省香蕉种植气候最适宜区面积增加了3.45×10^(6)hm^(2),适宜区、次适宜区、不适宜区面积分别减小了1.83×10^(6)、1.10×10^(6)、0.52×10^(6)hm^(2);与年平均气温突变前(1961—1997年)相比,突变后(1998—2022年)香蕉种植气候最适宜区面积占比增加了19.04个百分点,适宜区、次适宜区、不适宜区面积占比分别减小了8.29、7.77、3.00个百分点。

To explore the impacts of climate change on climatic suitability of banana planting in Guangdong Province,we analyzed climate data from 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province during 1961 to 2022,inclu⁃ding annual mean temperature(T_(y)),≥10℃annual accumulated temperature(T_(a)),average minimum temperature in January(T_(1)),annual extreme minimum temperature(T_(min)),and days with daily minimum temperature≤5℃(D≤5℃).The impacts of climate change on climatic suitability of banana planting were assessed by combining with the changes of five key climate factors for the periods of 1961-1990,1971-2000,1981-2010,1991-2020,before(1961-1997)and after(1998-2022)T_(y)mutation.The results showed that T_(y),T_(a),T_(1),and T_(min)showed a significant increasing trend with the rates of 0.2℃,80.7℃·d,0.4℃and 0.4℃per decade,respectively.D≤5℃showed significant drop with a rate of 1.5 d per decade.T_(y)had mutation in the year of 1997.Generally,T_(y),T_(a),and T_(min)were higher in south than in north part,in plain than in mountain regions.D≤5℃was lower in southern coastal regions than in northern mountainous regions.Except for the high and cold mountainous regions in northern Guangdong,T_(1)in other regions met the heat requirements for bananas to overwinter.According to the cli⁃matic requirement of banana growth and development,the climatic division for banana planting in Guangdong Province could be divided into four regions:mostsuitable region,suitable region,subsuitable region,and unsuitable region.The mostsuitable region was mainly distributed in western Guangdong.The suitable region was mainly located in eastern Guangdong and southern part of the Pearl River Delta.The subsuitable region was mainly located in northern part of the Pearl River Delta and southern part of northern Guangdong.The unsuitable region was concentrated in northern part of northern Guangdong.Due to climate change,the area of mostsuitable region showed obvious northward expansion and eastward movement,but the areas of suitable,subsuitable,and unsuitable region decreased.Compared to that in 1961-1990,the area of mostsuitable region in 1991-2020 increased by 3.45×10^(6)hm^(2),but the areas of suitable,subsuitable and unsuitable region decreased by 1.83×10^(6),1.10×10^(6),and 0.52×10^(6)hm^(2),respectively.The percentage of mostsuitable region increased by 19.04 percentage point,but the percentages of suitable,sub⁃suitable and unsuitable region decreased by 8.29,7.77,and 3.00 percentage point,respectively,after 1997 than that before in Guangdong Province.