颠覆性技术早期识别方法及其在氢能源领域的应用

Early Identification Method for Disruptive Technologies and Its Application in the Field of Hydrogen Energy

[目的/意义]颠覆性技术作为产业革命的核心驱动力,可以迅速颠覆现有技术的发展轨迹,具有强大的破坏力。实现颠覆性技术的早期识别可以帮助企业和国家尽早实施战略布局,促进技术创新与产业升级。[方法/过程]综合多源异构数据,从新颖性、前瞻性、可行性和关注度4个维度,运用熵权TOPSIS法,构建颠覆性技术早期识别模型,并在氢能源领域进行实验验证。[结果/结论]研究结果表明,太阳能分解水制氢、物理吸附储氢和质子交换膜燃料电池是最具颠覆性潜力的氢能源领域技术。

[Purpose/Significance]As the core driving force of industrial revolution,disruptive technologies can rapidly overturn the development trajectory of existing technologies.Identifying the application of disruptive technologies to the field of hydrogen energy is of great significance for improving the country’s hydrogen energy technology strength and promoting the development of clean energy.[Method/Process]Based on multi-source heterogeneous data,the paper constructed an early identification model of disruptive technologies from four dimensions:novelty,foresight,feasibility,and high attention.The study calculated the indicator weights and comprehensive evaluation scores of technologies by Entropy-TOPSIS method and adopted an empirical study in the field of hydrogen energy.[Result/Conclusion]The study indicates that solar decomposition water hydrogen production technology,hydrogen adsorption storage technology,and proton exchange membrane fuel cells are the most disruptive technologies in the field of hydrogen energy.