基于灰色预测模型的后疫情时代民航经济发展研究

Research on Civil Aviation Economic Development in Post-Epidemic Era Based on Grey Prediction Model

新冠疫情在2020年全球爆发,民航业作为全球化运输体系的重要组成部分,受到疫情的冲击巨大。航空公司面临着空前的困境,空中交通量大幅下降,多数航空公司上半年经济表现不佳甚至亏损。而随着全球疫情的好转,民航业进入了后疫情时代,民航业经济的发展面临新的机遇和挑战。本文根据中国民航局公布的相关数据,运用灰色预测模型对2023年4月、5月、6月的运输总周转量,旅客运输量、邮运输量进行预测。结果表明2023年的运输总周转量、旅客运输量、邮运输量都呈逐月上升趋势,对比2022年每月也有了巨大增长。最后依据预测的结果及“十四五”规划,对民航经济发展提出一些对策与建议。

The novel coronavirus epidemic broke out globally in 2020,and the civil aviation industry,as an important part of the globalized transportation system,was greatly impacted by the epidemic.Airlines are facing unprecedented difficulties.Air traffic volume has dropped sharply.Most airlines have poor economic performance or even loss in the first half of the year.With the improvement of the global epidemic,the civil aviation industry has entered the post-epidemic era,and the economic development of the civil aviation in-dustry is facing new opportunities and challenges.Based on the relevant data published by the Civil Aviation Administration of China,this paper uses the grey prediction model to forecast the total transport turnover,passenger transport and mail transport of 456 months in 2023.The results show that the total transport turn-over,passenger transport and mail transport in 2023 all show a month-to-month increasing trend,and there is also a huge monthly increase compared with 2022.Finally,based on the predicted results and the“14th Five-Year Plan”,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the development of civil avia-tion economy.