长江中下游城市群住宅价格分布特征分析

Analysis on Housing Price Distribution Characteristics of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

本文以《长江经济带发展规划纲要》正式实施后连续四年的长江中下游城市群79个地级市的住宅商品房价格作为基础数据,采用空间自相关分析探索区域在政策实施后住宅价格的空间分布特征,并运用地理探测器模型测算各房价驱动因素的强弱差异。结果表明:一是区域住宅价格在空间上呈现随行政等级上升而上升的趋势,整体呈东高西低的走向,且政策的实施并未刺激该规律发生明显变化;二是区域房价集聚特征显著,政策实施使得区域房地产发展差异有所下降,促进了协同发展。三是通过因子探测表明,城市行政等级等指标对于房价空间分异的驱动作用大;人口因素对于房价驱动作用小,区域人口红利逐渐消弱。四是交互探测表明,两驱动因子的共同作用下对于房价的解释力增加。人口因素指标与其他指标叠加作用时,驱动力大大增强。

The article takes the price of residential commercial housing in 79 Prefecture-level city in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration for four consecutive years after the offi-cial implementation of the policy of the Outline of the Development Plan of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the basic data.Using spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of residential prices in a region after policy implementation,and using geographic detector models to calcu-late the strength differences of various housing price driving factors.The results indicate that:First,re-gional housing prices show an upward trend in space with the rise of administrative levels,with an overall trend of high in the east and low in the west,and the implementation of policies has not stimulated signifi-cant changes in this pattern.Second,The agglomeration characteristics of regional housing prices are sig-nificant,and the implementation of policies has led to a decrease in the differences in regional real estate development,promoting coordinated development.Third,Factor detection indicates that indicators such as urban administrative level have a significant driving effect on the spatial differentiation of housing prices;Demographic factors have a small driving effect on housing prices,and the regional Demographic divi-dend has gradually weakened.Foufh,The interaction detection indicates that the joint effect of the two driving factors increases the explanatory power for housing prices.When population factor indicators are combined with other indicators,the driving force is greatly enhanced.