摘要
基于内蒙古自治区119个气象站的逐日气象数据,采用未来气候情景模式,结合马铃薯的生理生化指标,构建了各发育阶段温度、降水、日照及综合气候适宜度,分析和预估气候适宜度演变特征及其与马铃薯生产的关系,建立了基于气候适宜度指数的马铃薯产量预报模型,实现了旬尺度、旗县级的产量预报,为优势产区马铃薯的动态监测、产量预报模型优选提供了参考依据。结果表明:近60年(1961—2020年)来内蒙古自治区马铃薯生长季光、热适宜度优于降水,综合气候适宜度高值区在中西部偏南及东部大部分地区,气候资源优势明显;从年际变化上来看,日照适宜度呈弱的上升趋势,温度、降水及综合适宜度呈不同程度的下降趋势,对马铃薯生产呈弱的负效应;未来50年(2021—2070年)RCP4.5低排放情景下气候变化对马铃薯生产表现为弱的正效应的可能性大,RCP8.5高排放情景下则为负效应的可能性大;7月上旬—9月上旬逐旬产量预报模型通过了0.05置信检验的占比达74%,预报外推平均准确率为87.4%,开展业务试应用的效果较好,马铃薯预报趋势与实际情况基本吻合。
Based on the daily meteorological data from 119 weather stations in Inner Mongolia,the future climate scenario model and the physiological and biochemical indexes of potato were used to construct the temperature,precipitation,sunshine and comprehensive climate suitability in each development stage,analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of climate suitability and its relationship with potato production,and establish a potato yield forecast model based on climate suitability index,which could realize the yield forecasting business application at ten-day scale and banner county level and provide a reference for dynamic monitoring and optimization of yield forecasting model of potato in dominant producing areas.The results showed that in the past 60 years(1961~2020),the light and heat suitability of potato growing season was better than that of precipitation,and the regions with high comprehensive climate suitability had obvious advantages in climate resources in the south of central and western China and most of the eastern regions.From the perspective of interannual variation,sunshine suitability showed a weak upward trend,while temperature,precipitation and overall suitability showed a different degree of downward trend,which had a weak negative effect on potato production.In the next 50 years(2021~2070),climate change is more likely to have a weak positive effect on potato production under the low emission scenario of RCP4.5,while it is more likely to have a negative effect under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5.From early July to early September,74%of the yield forecast models passed the 0.05 confidence test,and the average accuracy rate of forecast extrapolation was 87.4%.The effect of business trial application was good,and the trend of potato forecast was basically consistent with the actual situation.
作者
金林雪
于水燕
宋海清
王海梅
JIN Lin-xue;YU Shui-yan;SONG Hai-qing;WANG Hai-mei(Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center,Hohhot 010050,China;Inner Mongolia Weather Modification Center,Hohhot 010050,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2024年第9期66-73,共8页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
内蒙古科技厅科技计划项目(2022YFH0130)
内蒙古气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202465)
中国气象局马铃薯气象服务中心共同资助项目。
关键词
内蒙古
马铃薯
气候适宜度
产量预报
时空演变
Inner Mongolia
Potato
Climate suitability
Yield prediction
Spatiotemporal evolution