决策框架如何对外交决策产生影响--基于南宋对金政策的辩论

The Framing of Decisions Influence Foreign Policy Decision-Making:A Study of the Southern Song Dynasty's Debate over Its Policy toward the Jin Dynasty

外交决策理论有关决策框架的研究关注到两个相互矛盾的现象:一方面,决策框架约束了决策者的认知和选择,另一方面,决策者利用决策框架对决策进行“语义操纵”。但是,既有研究对二者间的互动逻辑,缺乏更进一步的描述。框架垄断现象的剖析成为完善决策理论关于框架效应方面内容的切入点。垄断性框架的存在,加强了话语而非权力对决策的影响:它通过反向的语义操纵,限制了权力与替代性框架结合的可能;并依据“认知一致性”原则对不同的政策路线进行筛选。在南宋对金政策辩论的案例中,面对金衰蒙兴的地缘政治大变局,南宋朝堂围绕“绝金”还是“和金”展开了两次激烈的政治斗争。理学家利用框架垄断的优势,挫败了占据权力优势的相党推动“和金蔽蒙”之策,激进的联蒙灭金政策被采纳。该案例一定程度上验证了话语对权力的反向控制及框架垄断可能造成的消极后果。

The research of the framing of decisions in foreign policy decisionmaking theory highlights two contradictory phenomena:on the one hand,the framing of decisions constrain decision-makers'cognition;on the other hand,decision-makers use the framing of decisions to engage in“semantic manipulation”of decisions.However,existing research lacks further description of the interaction between these two aspects.The concept of“hegemonic framing”offers a valuable entry point for analyzing this issue.The existence of a hegemonic framing strengthens the influence of discourse,rather than power,on decision-making:through reverse semantic manipulation,it limits the possibility of combining power with alternative framing and filters different policy paths based on the principle of“cognitive consistency.”In the case of the Southern Song Dynasty's policy debate toward the Jin Dynasty,amid the major geopolitical shift of Jin's decline and the rise of the Mongols,the Southern Song Dynasty engaged in two fierce political struggles over whether to“sever ties with Jin”or“maintain peace with Jin.”Neo-Confucians took advantage of hegemonic framing to thwart the Xiang faction,which held power,from pushing the“peace with Jin,resist the Mongols”policy,leading to the adoption of the more radical policy of allying with the Mongols to destroy the Jin Dynasty.This case demonstrates the reverse control of discourse over power and the negative consequences that hegemonic framing may cause.