BRI’s Employment Effect on Participating Countries and Mechanism Analysis

Based on the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper uses panel data from 124 countries between 2006 and 2019 to build a difference-in-differences(DID)model to investigate the BRI employment effect on participating countries and mechanisms.We observed that the BRI had significantly increased employment rates in participating countries,and that this result remained robust after using the instrumental variable(IV)to mitigate endogeneity and perform a robustness test.There are differences in the BRI’s employment effect depending on the income level,labor conditions,and the digital economy’s development level of BRI countries:compared with low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries,the BRI has a more significantly positive effect on the employment rates of upper-middle-income and high-income countries;the BRI’s employment effect is stronger in countries with higher labor market efficiencies and better labor relations;In countries with higher levels of digital economy,the BRI has a relatively greater positive effect on employment.The BRI has increased employment rates in participating countries on both the supply and demand sides by building infrastructure,interconnecting industries and resources,and improving human capital through the exchange of human resources.Further analysis suggests that the BRI’s employment effect promotes the sophistication of participating countries’employment structures,hence improving employment quality,and that participating countries’employment levels may continue to improve in the medium and long run.