2000—2020年宁夏植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动因子分析

Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation net primary productivityand its driving factors in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020

为明确宁夏2000年以来植被生产力时空变化特征及驱动因子,基于MODIS植被净初级生产力(NPP)数据MOD17A3HGF,应用Sen′s斜率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Hurst指数分析2000—2020年宁夏NPP时空变化特征,应用地理探测器探测气象条件、地形地貌、社会经济等10个因子对宁夏NPP空间分布差异的影响。结果表明:2000—2020年,宁夏植被净初级生产力空间分布为南北高、中间低,NPP增长速率为52.8 gC·m^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1),显著增大的区域占全区面积的91.4%。Hurst指数均值为0.447,未来NPP为较弱反持续性,即未来变化与过去变化相反,有弱减小趋势。气象条件是影响宁夏NPP空间分布差异的主要因素,社会经济因子影响力不明显。

To clarify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of vegetation productivity in Ningxia since 2000,this study utilizes MODIS Net Primary Productivity(NPP)data(MOD17A3HGF),Sen′s slope,Mann-Kendall trend test,and Hurst index to investigate the changes in NPP from 2000 to 2020.Employing the geographical detector,the study examines the influence of ten factors including meteorological conditions,topography,and socioeconomic aspects on the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia.The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of vegetation NPP in Ningxia was high in the north and south and low in the middle,with an NPP growth rate of 52.8 gC·m·(10 a^(-1)),and significant increases observed in 91.4%of the region.The average Hurst index is 0.447,suggesting a weak anti-persistence in future NPP,indicating a slight decreasing trend.Meteorological conditions are identified as the primary factor influencing the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia,while the impact of socio-economic factors is not significant.