喀斯特山地城市群生态系统服务价值演变及影响因素

Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value and Influencing Factors in Karst Mountainous Urban Agglomeration

[目的]研究喀斯特城市群城镇化背景下的生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem service value,ESV)演变及影响因素,为区域生态环境保护、生态功能区划和生态补偿决策提供科学依据。[方法]基于黔中城市群2000—2020年土地利用数据,从自然和社会经济角度选取16个土地利用变化驱动因子,构建Markov-FLUS模型模拟自然发展和生态约束情景下的2030年土地利用格局,然后采用修正的ESV系数评估ESV时空演变规律,利用地理探测器分析ESV空间分异影响因素。[结果](1) 2000—2020年人造地表对耕地(53%)、林地(12%)和草地(10%)侵占严重;生态约束情景下重要自然保护区得到有效保护,人造地表增加5.55万hm^(2),增速有所放缓。(2) ESV整体呈现先升后降的趋势,其中调节服务(71.08%)>支持服务(23.59%)>文化服务(4.51%)>供给服务(0.82%);自然发展情景下2030年ESV值为592.11亿元,生态约束情景下ESV值为589.06亿元。(3) ESV空间分异因子解释力分别为区县面积(0.79)>农林牧渔增加值(0.51)>第一产业增加值(0.50)>GDP(0.41)>人均GDP(0.30)>建成区面积(0.09)>常住人口(0.04),区县面积、农林牧渔增加值和第一产业增加值与ESV呈显著正相关,人均GDP与ESV呈显著负相关关系,影响因素的交互对于ESV具有非线性增强和双因子增强的解释作用。[结论]区域生态系统服务类型主要为调节服务,水域与林地生态系统对于整体ESV的影响较大,是区域环境保护与生态建设的重心。

[Objective] The aims of this study are to investigate the evolution of ecosystem service value(ESV) and its influencing factors urbanization in the Karst city cluster and to provide a scientific basis for regional eco-environmental protection,ecological function zoning,and ecological compensation decision-making.[Methods] Based on the land use data of urban agglomeration of central Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020,16 drivers were selected from natural and socio-economic perspectives,and a Markov-FLUS model was constructed to simulate the land use pattern in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological constraints.Then,the modified ESV coefficients were used to assess the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV and analyze the factors influencing the spatial differentiation of ESV using Geodetector.[Results](1) The artificial surface seriously encroached on cropland(53%),forest land(12%),and grassland(10%) from 2000 to 2020.Under the ecological constraint scenario,significant nature reserves were effectively protected,and the artificial surface increased by 55 500 hectares,with a slower growth rate.(2) The ESV as a whole showed a trend of rising and then falling,with regulating services(71.08%)>supporting services(23.59%)>cultural services(4.51%)>supplying services(0.82%).The value of ESV in 2030 under the natural development scenario was 59.211 billion yuan,and that was 58.906 billion yuan under the ecological constraint scenario.(3) The explanatory power of ESV spatial differentiation factors followed the order:area of districts and counties(0.79)>value-added of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery(0.51)>value-added of primary industry(0.50)>GDP(0.41)>GDP per capita(0.30)>area of built-up area(0.09)>resident population(0.04).The area of districts and counties,value-added of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and value-added of primary industry were significantly and positively correlated with ESV,and GDP was significantly and positively correlated with ESV.The area of districts and counties,value-added of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and value-added of primary industry were significantly positively correlated with ESV,and GDP was significantly negatively correlated with ESV.[Conclusion] Regional ecosystem services are mainly regulating services,and water and woodland ecosystems have a more significant impact on the overall ESV,which is the center of gravity of regional environmental protection and ecological construction.