老旧小区加装电梯过程中的居民行为博弈——基于前景理论的分析

Study on Game of Residents'Behavior in the Installation of Elevators in Old Residential District-Based on Prospect Theory

从动态视角探究老旧小区加装电梯项目中主体行为的交互影响和演化规律,分析阻碍加装电梯项目推进的因素,结合系统动力学仿真模拟,构建合作博弈收益感知矩阵,为参与主体的决策提供理论参考和建议。结果表明:整个博弈系统趋向于稳定状态的关键在于双方共同的策略选择,高层业主重视低层业主的利益需求是低层业主合作的关键;加装电梯过程中低层业主受到的损失、高层业主对低层业主的补偿、低层业主不合作时付出的补偿等因素是系统向稳定状态演化的主要驱动力。因此,政府应该制定合理的补偿制度,减轻高层业主的补偿压力;小区居民应从合作角度出发,重视共同的利益。

This paper aims to explore the interaction influence and evolution law of the subject's behavior of the retrofitting elevator project in the old residential district from the dynamic perspective and to analyze the factors hindering the conduct of the retrofitting elevator project.Combined with the system dynamics simulation,the cooperative game benefit perception matrix is constructed to provide theoretical reference and improvement suggestions for the decision of the participants.The results show that the key for the whole system to tend to a stable state lies in the common strategy choice of both sides,and the high-level owners'attention to the behavior of the low-level owners is the key to the cooperation of the low-level owners;the loss suffered by the low-level owners during the process of installing the elevator,the compensation of the high-level owners to the low-level owners,and the compensation paid by the low-level owners in case of non-cooperation are the main driving forces for the evolution of the system to a stable state.Therefore,the government should formulate a reasonable compensation system to reduce the subsidy pressure of high-level owners and the residents of the community should attach importance to the common interests from the perspective of cooperation.