乡村振兴视角下青海省新型城镇化耦合协调发展研究

Research on the Coupling and Coordinated Development of New Urbanization in Qinghai Province from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization

在国家实施乡村振兴战略的指导下,研究乡村振兴与新型城镇化政策的协同发展对于推动城乡一体化和农村现代化具有重要意义。本文根据青海省2010—2020年的数据,首先运用耦合协调度模型分析了二者的协调发展程度,然后采用地理探测器和Tobit回归模型分析了影响两者间耦合协调度的因素。研究发现,乡村振兴水平与新型城镇化水平均呈正向增长趋势,其中新型城镇化发展占有一定优势。其耦合协调度大致经过了从“轻度失调”到“濒临失调”再到“勉强协调”的演变历程。通过分析发现,经济增长水平、收入水平和消费水平是耦合协调度空间分异性的影响因子;经济发展、技术进步及政府参与程度等因素均对耦合协调性水平产生了显著的正向效应。为了加强这一协同效应,建议加速农业转移人口的城市化,优化城镇化布局,增强城市综合承载力,并提升城乡融合等。

Guided by the national strategy of rural revitalization,exploring the synergistic development of rural revitalization and new urbanization policies is essential for promoting urban-rural integration and modernizing rural areas.Utilizing data from Qinghai Province between 2010 and 2020,this study initially assesses their coordinated development using a coupling coordination model and then analyzes influencing factors using geographical detectors and Tobit regression models.The results indicate that both rural revitalization and new urbanization are experiencing positive growth,with new urbanization having distinct advantages.The coupling coordination degree has improved from“mild imbalance”to“on the verge of imbalance”to“barely coordinated.”Economic growth,income,and consumption levels are identified as determinants of spatial heterogeneity in coupling coordination,while economic development,technological advancements,and government involvement positively influence the coupling coordination level.The paper recommends accelerating the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population,optimizing the urbanization layout,strengthening the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities,and enhancing urban-rural integration.These policies are crucial for achieving more balanced socioeconomic development and high-quality urban-rural integration.