可持续社会安全视角下经济-社会-生态耦合协调研究——以青海省为例

Economic-social-ecological coupling coordination from the perspective of sustainable societal safety:take Qinghai Province as an example

社会安全是多个子系统协调发展的结果,经济发展、社会稳定与生态持续的耦合协调是实现可持续社会安全的前提.论文提出可持续社会安全概念,阐述其理论内涵、空间要件及其交互影响机理.通过构建指标体系,对2000—2019年青海省县域经济发展-社会稳定-生态持续耦合协调水平进行测评.最后,尝试揭示青海省可持续社会安全状态的时空演变规律.结果显示:(1)经济发展迅速,地区分异显著.西宁市和海西州水平较高,海东市和海南州中等偏上,海北州和黄南州中等偏下,果洛州和玉树州较为滞后.社会稳定的经济地带性强,受自然灾害影响也较大.西宁市、海西州及海东市评分较高,海北州和海南州居中,玉树州、果洛州及黄南州评分较低.生态环境缓慢改善,空间格局相对稳定.低值区分布在西宁市、海东市和海西州,黄南州、果洛州和玉树州保持较高水平,海南州和海北州位列中游水平.(2)经济发展、社会稳定与生态持续系统耦合协调发展程度呈波动上升趋势.其中,青藏铁路沿线地区耦合协调水平较高,黄南州、果洛州及玉树州有待提升.(3)耦合协调水平的时空特征刻画,既揭示了可持续社会的系统性,又证明了基于社会功能结构的耦合协调水平测度社会安全水平的可行性.

Societal safety is the result of coordinated development of several subsystems,and the coupling and coordination of economic development,social stability and ecological sustainability is the premise of realizing sustainable societal safety.This paper puts forward the concept of sustainable societal safety,and expounds its connotation,spatial elements and interaction mechanism.Then,by constructing the index system,the coupling coordination level of county economic development,social stability and ecological sustainability in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2019 was evaluated.Finally,it tries to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution law of sustainable societal safety in Qinghai Province.The results show that:(1)Economy is developing rapidly,and the regional differentiation is remarkable.Xining and Haixi have a higher level,Haidong and Hainan are above the average,Haibei and Huangnan are below the average,and Guoluo and Yushu are lagging behind.Social and economic stability is strong,and it is greatly affected by natural disasters.Xining,Haixi and Haidong have higher scores,Haibei and Hainan are in the middle,and Yushu,Guoluo and Huangnan have lower scores.Ecological environment is slowly improving,and the spatial pattern is relatively stable.Low-value areas are distributed in Xining,Haidong and Haixi,Huangnan,Guoluo and Yushu maintain a high level,Hainan and Haibei rank in the middle reaches.(2)The degree of coordinated development of the three systems is fluctuating and rising.The coupling and coordination level along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is high,and Huangnan,Guoluo and Yushu areas need to be improved.(3)The description of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupling level not only reveals the systematicness of sustainable societal,but also proves the feasibility of measuring the societal safety level based on the coupling level of the social structure system.