致灾暴雨对农业生产影响的脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of the impact of disaster causing rainstorm to agricultural production

基于青海省2018—2022年气象资料、暴雨洪涝灾情资料及逐年经济数据,采用相关分析、曲线拟合等方法分析致灾暴雨对农业生产影响的脆弱性程度。结果表明,研究区致灾暴雨对农业生产的影响范围主要集中在青海东部及海西州东部,近5年(2018—2022年)来,以2022年出现灾情最多,8月出现频率最高,降水持续时间大多不超过1 d;6 h、12 h及日最大降水量是造成该地农作物暴雨灾害单位面积经济损失的主要降水致灾因子,在抗灾能力保持一致时,农作物暴雨灾害单位面积经济损失随着降水量的增大呈逐渐增加的趋势。由于单一要素的脆弱性曲线误差较大,选择构建多要素的农作物暴雨灾害脆弱性曲线:农作物暴雨灾害单位面积经济损失=0.020×12 h最大降水量-0.146×降水持续日数+0.585。该曲线可为未来暴雨洪涝对农业生产的致灾性预估提供参考。

Based on the meteorological data,rainstorm and flood disaster data and annual economic data of Qinghai Province from 2018 to 2022,the vulnerability of disaster causing rainstorm to agricultural production was analyzed by using correlation analysis,curve fitting and other methods.The results showed that the impact of disaster causing rainstorm on agricultural production in the study area was mainly concentrated in the Eastern part of Qinghai and the Eastern part of Haixi Prefecture.In recent five years(2018 to 2022),the most disasters occurred in 2022,the highest frequency occurred in August,and the duration of precipitation mostly not exceed 1 day;6 h,12 h and daily maximum precipitation were the main precipitation disaster causing factors that cause economic losses per unit area of crop rainstorm disasters in this area.When the disaster resistance capacity was consistent,the economic losses per unit area of crop rainstorm disasters gradually increase with the increase of precipitation.Due to the large error of the vulnerability curve of a single element,a multi element vulnerability curve of crop rainstorm disaster was selected:economic loss per unit area of crop rainstorm disaster=0.020×12 h maximum precipitation-0.146×precipitation duration days+0.585.The curve could provide references for the disaster prediction of rainstorm and flood on agricultural production in the future.