住房价格、预期收支与劳动力城市选择

Housing Prices,Potential In-out and Labors City Selection

引导人口有序分流是推进全面市民化并构建城市群协调发展格局的关键所在。住房是流动劳动力在城市生活的基础,预期收入和支出是劳动力预期收益的核心组成,直接影响其流动城市选择。研究表明:第一,在综合考虑流入地城市特征和预期收支情况下,城市房价上涨将降低劳动力选择该城市的概率,但这一挤出效应会随时间推移而减弱;第二,城市规模越大、劳动力技能水平越高,房价所产生的拉动效应越能超过挤出效应;第三,城市房价上涨既能通过提高收入财富吸引劳动力流入,也会通过提升生活成本和减少就业机会阻碍其流入;第四,预期收入有助于缓解房价对劳动力城市选择的负向影响,而预期支出则相反。基于此,坚持“房住不炒”基本定位、提升市场信息透明度及解决劳动力生活和就业问题将对引导人口有序分流产生重要的助推作用。

Guiding the orderly distribution of population is the key to promoting comprehensive urbanization and building a coordinated development pattern of urban agglomerations.Housing is the foundation for mobile labor to live in cities,and potential in-out are the core components of labor's expected benefits,directly affecting their choice of mobile cities.By empirically testing the specific impact,related mechanisms and heterogeneity issues of housing prices and potential in-out on labor city selection decisions,the study finds that,firstly,the increase in housing prices will reduce the probability of labor city choice under the consideration of city characteristics and expected in-out,but this crowding out effect will weaken over time.Secondly,the larger the city size and the higher the level of labor skills,the more the pulling effect of housing prices could surpass the crowding out effect.Thirdly,the rise in housing prices can not only increase the probability of labor inflow by increasing labor income,but also increase the cost of labor living and reduce employment opportunities to reduce the probability of labor inflow.Fourthly,potential income helps alleviate the negative impact of housing prices on labor city selection,while potential expenditure is the opposite.Based on this,adhering to the basic positioning of“living in real estate without speculation”,enhancing market information transparency,and solving labor life and employment problems will play an important role in guiding population flow orderly.