流动育龄女性的生育时间成本感知与生育意愿

Perceptions of Childbearing Time Costs and Fertility Intentions of Migrant Women of Childbearing Age

流动育龄女性对生育成本的感知与母职惩罚的认知,会对其生育观念产生影响。立足对于育龄流动女性在妊娠期和分娩后可能面临的工作时间减少风险的理解,将流动女性的生育机会成本操作化为产前时间成本与产后时间成本。基于2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,参考单递减生命表方法与总和工作年限方法分别计算生育年龄段流动女性的产前时间成本与产后时间成本,并采用系列计量模型和因果修正及稳健性检验方法,探索出流动女性人口的生育时间成本与其生育意愿之间的因果关系。计量结果发现,预期生育时间的成本上升对流动女性的一孩及二孩生育意愿均具有显著抑制作用,其中,这种抑制作用在二孩生育意愿上更为明显。

The perception of childbearing costs and the awareness of motherhood penalty among childbearing-aged migrant women can influence their views on childbearing.This article is based on the understanding of the reduced risk of work time for migrant women during pregnancy and after childbirth due to their childbearing age,by operationalizing the opportunity cost of childbearing for migrant women into pre-pregnancy and post-childbirth time costs.Subsequently,based on the data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey,the pre-pregnancy time cost and post-childbirth time cost for migrant women in their childbearing age group are calculated using the single decrement life table method and the total working years method,respectively.Employing econometric models,causal correction,and robustness testing methods,the article also explores the causal relationship between the childbirth time cost of migrant women and their childbirth intentions.The econometric results reveal that the increasing cost of expected childbirth time significantly inhibits women's intentions for both first and second childbirths,with this inhibitory effect being more pronounced for second childbirth intentions.