基于PLUS-InVEST模型的土地利用及生境质量预测研究--以三峡库区(重庆段)为例

Research on Land Use and Habitat Quality Prediction Based on PLUS-InVEST Model-Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Chongqing Section)as an Example

本文以三峡库区(重庆段)为例,基于2000年、2010年及2020年3期的土地利用数据,运用PLUS模型从自然发展、城镇发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种情景展开模拟预测,再利用InVEST模型对三峡库区(重庆段)的生境质量进行评估。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年间,三峡库区(重庆段)主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地,各地类间转换激烈,建设用地显著扩张;(2)2030年4种预测情景下土地利用差异显著,水域不断增加,未利用地持续减少,耕地仅在耕地保护情景下增加,林地仅在耕地保护情景下减少,草地仅在生态保护情景下增加;(3)模拟出的2030年4种情景中,除生态保护情景下生境质量有所改善外,其余3种情景生境质量都在一定程度上有所恶化。

In this paper,taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Chongqing section)as an example,based on the land use data from 2000 to 2010 to 2020,PLUS model is used to simulate the prediction from four scenarios of natural development,urban development,farmland protection and ecological protection,and then InVEST model is used to evaluate the habitat quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir area(Chongqing section).The results show that∶(1)from 2000 to 2020,the main land use types of the Three Gorges Reservoir area(Chongqing section)were cultivated land and forest land,and the conversion among different regions was fierce,and the construction land was significantly expanded;(2)in 2030,the land use varied significantly under the four forecast scenarios,the water area kept increasing,the unused land kept decreasing,the cultivated land only increased under the cultivated land protection scenario,the forest land only decreased under the farmland protection scenario,and the grassland only increased under the ecological protection scenario;(3)among the four simulated scenarios in 2030,the habitat quality in the other three scenarios deteriorated to some extent,except for the improved habitat quality in the ecological protection scenario.