广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴耦合协调的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Coupling Coordination between Sugarcane Industry and Rural Revitalization in Guangxi

产业融合发展是促进我国乡村振兴战略实施的重要路径。甘蔗产业是广西农业的支柱产业,甘蔗产业与乡村振兴产业耦合协调发展有利于促进该地区“三农”的高质量发展。基于此,选取2011—2019年广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴发展的面源数据,采用耦合协调度、灰色关联度对广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴的耦合协调发展进行深入研究,分析影响二者协调发展的关键性因素。结果表明:(1)广西甘蔗产业综合发展指数整体呈下降趋势,乡村振兴产业呈上升趋势,自2015年实施“脱贫攻坚”战略之后,广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴的综合发展指数呈现相同的变动态势;(2)广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴的协调度、耦合协调度均呈“W”型变化,整体呈平稳略微下降趋势,广西甘蔗产业和乡村振兴的耦合度为中等耦合作用,耦合协调度为轻度失调状态;(3)广西甘蔗产业与乡村振兴的关联度呈“U”型发展,从2011年开始关联度波动下滑,2015年出现最低值后出现了停滞期,2017年开始迅速提升。提出促进甘蔗产业与乡村振兴产业的深入融合发展、深度挖掘甘蔗附加值、有序推动智能化农业发展的对策建议。

The integrated development of industries is an important path to promote the implementation of China’s rural revitalization strategy.The sugarcane industry is a pillar industry of agriculture in Guangxi,and the coordinated development of sugarcane industry and rural revitalization industry is conducive to promoting the high-quality development of agriculture,rural areas,and farmers in this region.Based on this,the non-point source data on the development of Guangxi’s sugarcane industry and rural revitalization from 2011 to 2019 were selected,the coupling coordinated development of Guangxi’s sugarcane industry and rural revitalization was studied deeply using coordinated coupling degree and grey correlation degree,and the key factors that affect the coordinated development were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The overall comprehensive development index of sugarcane industry showed a downward trend,while the rural revitalization industry showed an upward trend.Since the implementation of the Poverty Alleviation Strategy in 2015,the comprehensive development index of sugarcane industry and rural revitalization showed the same trend of change.(2)The coordination degree and coupling coordination degree between the sugarcane industry and rural revitalization showed a‘W’shaped change,with an overall stable and slightly decreasing trend.The coupling degree between the sugarcane industry and rural revitalization in Guangxi was a moderate coupling effect,and the coupling coordination degree was in a mild state of imbalance.(3)The correlation between Guangxi’s sugarcane industry and rural revitalization showed a‘U’shaped development.Since 2011,the correlation had fluctuated and declined.After reaching its lowest value in 2015,there was a period of stagnation,and since 2017,it had rapidly increased.The countermeasures and suggestions to promote the deep integration and development of sugmote the development of intelligent agriculture were proposed.