“碳交易试点政策”对海洋产业结构转型升级的驱动效应研究——基于准自然实验的实证研究

Research on the Driving Effect of"Carbon Trading Pilot Policy"on the Transformation and Upgrading of Marine Industrial Structure:An Empirical Research based on Quasi-natural Experiment

“碳交易试点政策”是推动中国实现“双碳”目标的重要举措,该政策是否对海洋产业结构转型升级产生影响需要深入探讨。基于中国11个沿海地区2007-2019年的面板数据,以2013年实行的“碳交易试点政策”为一次准自然实验,评估了该政策对海洋产业结构转型升级的影响。研究表明:“碳交易试点政策”有助于促进海洋产业结构转型升级;该政策对沿海不同地区的驱动效应存在区域异质性现象;该政策目前尚未对周边省份产生辐射和虹吸效应。进一步利用中介效应模型探索了“碳交易试点政策”促进海洋产业结构转型升级的可能路径。研究发现:“碳交易试点政策”通过海洋科技创新的中介效应,推动了海洋产业结构转型升级,但外商直接投资的中介效应目前暂未体现。

"Carbon trading pilot policy"is an important measure to promote China to achieve the"double carbon"goal.It remains to be further explored whether this policy impacts the structural transformation and upgrading of the Marine industry.Based on panel data from 11 coastal areas in China from 2007 to 2019,this paper takes the"carbon trading pilot policy"implemented in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate its impact on the structural transformation and upgrading of Marine industries.The research shows that:"carbon trading pilot policy"is helpful to promote the structural transformation and upgrading of Marine industry;There is regional heterogeneity in the driving effect of the policy on different coastal areas.The policy has not yet had a radiating or siphoning effect on neighboring provinces.Furthermore,the mediation effect model is used to explore the possible path of"carbon trading pilot policy"to promote the transformation and upgrading of Marine industrial structure.The results show that"carbon trading pilot policy"promotes the transformation and upgrading of Marine industrial structure through the mediating effect of Marine science and technology innovation.The mediating effect of foreign direct investment has not been reflected at present.