基于复杂适应系统理论的乡村电商空间演化及影响因素研究——以河北省淘宝村为例

Spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors ofrural e-commerce from the perspective of complex adaptivesystem theory: A case study of Taobao villages in Hebei province

淘宝村是乡村电子商务发展的典型表征,探究其空间演化特征对厘清乡村电商发展规律具有重要意义。本文基于复杂适应系统理论,分析河北省淘宝村空间演化特征及影响因素,结果表明:①空间萌芽阶段(2009—2013年),村民自组织发展乡村电商形成淘宝村,主体适应行为和空间扩张程度有限;空间扩散阶段(2014—2019年)政府和非政府组织力量加强,创新要素和流的集聚性增强,推动淘宝村涌现和空间结构复杂性提升,而网商主体的负面互动和基础设施滞后短缺等问题导致部分淘宝村适应失败;空间稳固阶段(2020年至今),电商模式更新下多元主体间相互作用增强,进一步推动淘宝村转型升级和空间发展。②淘宝村主营产品的同质扩散、多元扩散和产业孤岛型等扩散类型以及自产自销、代理销售的流转途径,强化了产品标识作用和商品流的流动。③淘宝村空间结构的形成源于多元要素协同作用,其中,外部环境子系统影响力最大,区位条件、电商设施和物流设施要素是淘宝村的核心驱动力,子系统要素的刺激和主体间的相互作用共同推动了淘宝村空间结构的演化。本研究为电子商务在乡村发展的时空过程与机制提供了可参考的理论分析框架,研究结果对基于电子商务的数字乡村建设具有一定普适性指示作用。

Taobao village is a typical representation of rural e-commerce development,and exploring Taobao villages spatial evolution characteristics is of great significance to clarify the evolution law of rural e-commerce.This study deeply analyzes the spatial evolution characteristics of Taobao villages,grounded in the complex adaptive system theory.It applies Geodetector to examine the influencing factors of Taobao villages spatial distribution.Based on e-commerce platform,and composed of multi-agent,external environment,basic resources and infrastructure systems,the Taobao village system is a dynamic complex system.With the case of Taobao villages spatial evolution in Hebei province studied,some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1)In the spatial germination stage(from 2009 to 2013),villagers developed rural ecommerce under self-organization motion and formed Taobao villages.The adaptive behavior and spatial expansion degree of agents were limited.In the spatial diffusion stage(from 2014 to 2019),the strength of government and non-governmental organizations was improved,and the agglomeration of innovation elements and streams was enhanced,which promoted the emergence of Taobao villages and the complexity of the spatial structure.However,some Taobao villages failed to adapt due to the negative interaction of online stores'agents and the disadvantaged infrastructure.In the spatial stable stage(from 2020 to now),the interaction among multiple agents had been enhanced under the update of the e-commerce model,which further promoted the transformation and upgrading and spatial development of Taobao villages.(2)The diffusion types of Taobao villages'main products,such as homogenous diffusion,multiple diffusion and industrial island type,as well as the circulation channels of selfproduction and marketing and agent sales,strengthened the product identification effect and commodity flow.(3)The formation of Taobao villages spatial structure was derived from the synergy of multiple factors,among which the external environment subsystem had the greatest influence,and the factors of location conditions,e-commerce facilities and logistics facilities were the core driving forces of Taobao villages.The stimulation of sub-system factors and the interaction among agents jointly promoted the evolution of Taobao villages spatial structure.This research provides a theoretical analysis framework as a reference for exploring the spatiotemporal process and mechanism of the e-commerce development in rural areas,and the results have a certain universal indicative effect on the construction of digital villages based on ecommerce.