公路网合理规模评价方法研究及应用

Research on the Evaluation Method of Reasonable Size ofHighway Network and Its Application

为科学研判公路网建设规模与经济社会发展的适应性,本文在分析传统公路网规模评价方法原理、特点和适用性的基础上,基于传统国土系数法,综合考虑人口、土地面积、GDP、民用汽车保有量和二三产业产值之比等多种经济社会要素,研究提出公路网合理规模近似度评价模型,并以某省为案例评价其公路网规模与经济社会发展的适应性。结果表明,2006年之前由于农村公路未纳入公路里程统计,导致评价结果与实际情况存在较大偏差;2006~2021年间,该省公路网基本与经济社会同步发展;十四五期间,总体适应经济社会发展,但末期有滞后于经济社会发展的趋势,应持续推进公路网基础设施建设和升级改造。

In order to scientifically judge the adaptability of highway network construction scale to economic and social development,this paper analyzes the principle,characteristics and applicability of traditional highway network scale evaluation methods,based on the traditional country coefficient method,comprehensively considers the population,land area,GDP,civilian car ownership and the ratio of output value of the secondary and tertiary industries and other economic and social factors, researches and puts forward theapproximation evaluation model of the reasonable scale of the highway network and evaluates its adaptabilityto economic and social development in the form of a case study of a certain province. A province is used as acase study to evaluate the adaptability of its highway network size to economic and social development. Theresults show that before 2006, rural roads were not included in the statistics of road mileage, which led to alarge deviation between the evaluation results and the actual situation;during the period from 2006 to 2021,the province's road network basically developed in tandem with the economy and society;during the 14thFive-Year Plan period, it generally adapted to the economy and society, but at the end of the period, there wasa tendency to lag behind the economy and society, so that the road network should be continually promoted interms of infrastructure construction and upgrading.