黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的测度、时空差异及收敛性分析

Measurement,spatiotemporal variation and convergence of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin

通过构建黄河流域水资源节约集约水平评价体系,考察其地区差异、时空演变及收敛性。具体为,以2011-2020年黄河九省为研究对象,采用熵权法测度黄河流域水资源节约集约水平,运用Theil指数法、Kernel密度估计分析黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的时空差异,并利用空间杜宾模型和β收敛模型检验其影响因素及溢出效应。研究结果表明:1)研究期内,黄河流域水资源节约集约水平呈上升趋势,但时间阶段性、地区异质性特征明显。2)全流域空间差异的发展进程存在反复,在考察期内呈W型走势,主要差异来源为流域内部。3)动态演进呈现右移拖尾、尖窄峰到扁宽峰,全流域由双峰演变为三峰,分流域呈双峰俱乐部化,是空间非均衡性的表现。4)地区经济水平、技术创新、人口密度是影响黄河流域水资源节约集约水平的重要因素,具有空间溢出性。观察期内的水权制度实施对水资源节约集约水平的提升产生了政策因果效应。文中客观衡量了黄河流域水资源节约集约情况,为因时因地施策,推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供了数据支撑与量化基础。

By constructing an evaluation system for water resource conservation and intensification level in the Yellow River Basin,this study examines the regional variation,spatiotemporal evolution and convergence of water resource conservation and intensification level in the Yellow River Basin.Specifically,taking the nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2011 to 2020 as the research object,the entropy weight method was used to measure the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin.The Theil index method and Kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatiotemporal differences in the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the basin,and the spatial Durbin model andβconvergence model were used to test their influencing factors and spillover effects.The results indicate that:1)During the study period,the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin is on the rise,but with obvious characteristics of regional heterogeneity and time phases.2)There are obvious regional variations in the level of water resource conservation and intensification in the Yellow River Basin,and the main source of the variations is the inter-regional differences.3)The overall distribution curve of water resource conservation and intensification level in the basin have evolved from double peaks to triple peaks,with an enhanced polarization phenomenon.4)There is a significantβconvergence process in the research object,and the regional economic level,technological innovation,and population density are the important factors.The implementation of water rights system has had a policy causal effect on the improvement of water resource conservation and intensification.This paper provides data support and quantitative basis for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.