基于负荷损失解析建模的城市电网移动式电源集群灾前布局

Pre-disaster allocation of mobile power source group in urban power network based on analytical modeling of load loss

台风、暴雨等极端天气易造成城市电网大规模停电。为实现重要负荷的灾中保供,针对台风灾害场景的不确定性构建了城市电网失负荷分布的概率模型,提出了移动式电源集群的灾前最优布局策略。考虑到城市电网的高维度特征,将城市电网分为中压配电网和高压配电网分别进行建模:在中压配电网层面,根据电网拓扑结构与线路故障概率的空间分布,提出了变电站级的失负荷期望值解析模型;在高压配电网层面,建立了移动式电源集群灾前两阶段随机规划模型,以不确定极端场景下总运行成本最小为目标函数布置移动式电源集群。基于某地区实际电网验证所提出的失负荷期望解析模型与电源布局方法,算例结果表明,所提模型和方法能够快速计算失负荷值,在对计算时间严格约束的场景下给出移动式电源集群的最优配置方案,实现城市电网极限生存能力的提升。

Extreme weather such as typhoon and rainstorm can easily cause large-scale power outage in urban power network.In order to realize the protection of important loads in disaster,a probability model of urban power network load loss distribution for the uncertainty of typhoon disaster scenario is constructed.The optimal allocation strategy of mobile power source group before disaster is proposed.Considering the high-dimensional characteristics of the urban power network,the urban power network is divided into medium voltage distribution network and high voltage distribution network for modeling respectively.In the medium voltage distribution network,an analytical model for expected value of the load loss is proposed according to the topology of the power network and the spatial distribution of line fault probability.In the high voltage distribution network,a two-stage stochastic programming model of mobile power source group before disaster is established.The mobile power source group is arranged with the minimum total economic cost as the objective function.Based on an actual regional power network,the proposed analytical model for expected value of the load loss and the power source allocation method are verified.The results of the example show that the proposed model and method can quickly calculate the load loss value,and give the optimal allocation scheme of mobile power source group under the scenario of strict calculation time constraints,improving the ultimate survivability of urban power network.