盘州市石漠化地区生态系统服务价值驱动因子分析

Analysis of Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Value in Rocky Desertification Area of Panzhou City

该研究旨在分析盘州市石漠化地区生态系统服务价值驱动因子。利用综合指数法选择盘州市石漠化地区无明显石漠化、潜在石漠化、轻度石漠化、中度石漠化、强度石漠化和极强度石漠化6个生态系统的石漠化分布图,采用石漠化失控动态模型,分析2005—2020年15年的石漠化变化特征,采用主成分分析法确定不同生态系统各驱动因子的权重。研究结果表明,2005—2010年间的无明显石漠化、潜在石漠化呈现负变化,轻度石漠化、中度石漠化、强度石漠化和极强度石漠化呈现正变化,2010—2015年间和2015—2020年间的无明显石漠化、潜在石漠化和轻度石漠化呈现正变化,中度石漠化、强度石漠化和极强度石漠化呈现负变化。2015—2020年间中度石漠化、强度石漠化和极强度石漠化面积比例少于2005—2010年和2010—2015年两个时间段,分别是11.18%、2.29%和1.44%。影响盘州市石漠化演变的主要驱动力是农业生产总值、总人口数量、人口密度以及耕地面积,q值均稳定在0.2左右。因此,针对盘州市石漠化区域概况结合自然地理和社会经济等多重因素,依据驱动因子评价指标,进行生态治理,从而促进区域可持续发展。

The purpose of this study was to analyze the driving factors of ecosystem service value in rocky desertification area of Panzhou City.By using the comprehensive index method,the distribution maps of six ecosystems in the rocky desertification area of Panzhou City,including no obvious rocky desertification,potential rocky desertification,light rocky desertification,moderate rocky desertification,intense rocky desertification and extremely intense rocky desertification,were selected,and the runaway dynamic model of rocky desertification was adopted to analyze the change characteristics of rocky desertification in the 15 years from 2005 to 2020.Principal component analysis was used to determine the weights of driving factors in different ecosystems.The results showed that no obvious rocky desertification and potential rocky desertification showed negative changes from 2005 to 2010;mild rocky desertification,moderate rocky desertification,intense rocky desertification and extremely intense rocky desertification showed positive changes;no obvious rocky desertification,potential rocky desertification and mild rocky desertification showed positive changes from 2010 to 2015 and 2015 to 2020.Moderate rocky desertification,intense rocky desertification and very intense rocky desertification showed negative changes.The proportion of moderate,intense and extremely intense rocky desertification areas during 2015-2020 was 11.18%,2.29%and 1.44%,respectively,less than that during 2005-2010 and 2010-2015.The main driving forces affecting the evolution of rocky desertification in Panzhou City are the gross agricultural product,total population,population density and cultivated land area,and the q value is stable at about 0.2.Therefore,according to the general situation of the rocky desertification area in Panzhou City,combined with multiple factors such as natural geography and social economy,ecological management is carried out according to the driving factor evaluation index,so as to promote regional sustainable development.