基于GIS分析的鲁中南低山丘陵区地质灾害风险评价

Geological Hazard Risk Assessment of Low Mountain and Hilly Areas of Central and Southern Shandong Province Based on GIS

为更好地开展山东省鲁中南低山丘陵区地质灾害综合防治工作,本文在地质灾害风险普查的基础上,运用信息量模型,结合GIS分析建立了区域地质灾害易发性和风险性评价体系。本次评价体系选取了地形坡度、起伏度等8个不同的评价指标,得出了地质灾害的易发性分级及分布范围。叠加研究区利用皮尔逊三型水文模型得到的不同重现期下的降水强度,进行危险性评价。危险性叠加易损性,得到风险性评价,为研究区地质灾害防治提供科学依据。结果显示,随着降水量的增大,地质灾害发生的概率就越大。

In order to better carry out comprehensive prevention and control of geological hazards in low mountain and hilly areas of central and southern Shandong province,a regional geological hazard susceptibility and risk assessment system has been put forward based on geological hazard risk survey,information quantity model and GIS analysis.8 different evaluation indicators has selected,such as terrain slope and undulation,and the susceptibility classification and distribution range of geological hazards has been obtained.By overlaying the precipitation intensity obtained from Pearson's three type hydrological model at different return periods in the study area,hazard assessment has been carried out.The combination of danger and vulnerability results in a risk assessment will provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of geological disasters in the study area.It is showed that as precipitation increasing,the probability of geological disasters occurring will increase.