基于变权理论的河北省洪涝灾害风险评估研究

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment in Hebei Province Based on Variable Weight Theory

灾害风险评估是减轻灾害损失的重要手段。遵循风险系统理论,结合河北省灾害特征、经济发展等因素,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力四个维度指标,采用熵权法确定指标常权权重,构建河北省洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系。利用气象水文、地形地貌及社会经济等数据,构建符合洪涝灾害风险评估特征的状态变权向量,建立河北省洪涝灾害风险变权评估模型,对河北省县域单元进行精细化风险评估。结果表明,河北省洪涝灾害风险主要呈东部沿海县域高、南部平原县域中等、北部山区县域低的趋势。

Disaster risk assessment is an important means to reduce disaster loss.Following the risk system theory and combining the disaster characteristics and economic development of Hebei Province,four dimension indicators are selected as disaster causing factor risk,disaster-induced environmental sensitivity,disaster-bearing body vulnerability and disaster prevention and reduction ability.By using entropy weight method to determine the constant weight of indicators,flood disaster risk assessment index system of Hebei Province is established.Based on meteorological and hydrological data,landform and geomorphology data,social and economic data,the state variable weight vector conforming to the characteristics of flood disaster risk assessment is constructed,and the flood disaster risk assessment model of Hebei Province is established to carry out refined risk assessment for county units in Hebei Province.The results show that the flood disaster in Hebei Province was high in the eastern coastal counties,medium in the southern plain and low in the northern mountainous counties.