基于多源数据的河北省雷电灾害风险评估研究

The Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Multi-source Data in Hebei

河北省地处环京津冀、环渤海经济圈,发挥着重要的经济区位作用。省内强对流天气多发,雷电活动有时会对人类生命和财产安全造成巨大威胁。该文基于自然灾害风险评估理论,从地闪空间分布和时间聚集程度两个维度选取气象致灾因子与环境致灾因子,以人口、经济、铁路、防雷安全监管对象为主要承灾体,利用历史灾情和不同土地利用下防护能力描述易受灾程度,继而对河北省雷电灾害风险进行评估分析。结果表明:①河北省城区雷电极高风险区、高风险区面积占比分别达19.38%、49.92%;②极高风险地区主要位于人类活动强烈和经济发展水平较高的东南部地区以及历年来发生雷电灾情较为严重的区域;③极高风险区内承灾体较密集,GDP、人口、防雷安全监管对象分别达0.74亿元/km^(2)、0.12万人/km^(2)、0.20个/km^(2);评估结果与历史灾情具有良好的显著正相关关系(R2=0.5229),可为当地防雷减灾管理提供参考。

Hebei Province is located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Bohai Rim Economic Circle,and plays an important role in economic location.Frequent severe convective weather makes lightning activities sometimes pose a huge threat to human life and property.Based on the theory of natural disaster risk assessment,we select environmental disaster factors and meteorological disaster factors from the two dimensions of spatial distribution and time aggregation of lightning,take population,economy,railway and lightning protection safety supervision objects as the main disaster bearing bodies,describe the degree of vulnerability by using historical disaster conditions and protection capabilities under different land uses,and then evaluate and analyze the risk of lightning disasters in Hebei Province.The results show that:①In the main urban areas of Hebei Province,the areas with highest lightning risk and high risk accounted for 19.38%and 49.92%respectively;②The highest risk areas are mainly located in the southeast region with strong human activities and high level of economic development,and the areas with more serious lightning disasters over the years.③The disaster victims in the extremely high risk areas are dense,with GDP,population,lightning protection safety supervision objects reaching 74 million yuan/km^(2),0.12 million people/km^(2),and 0.20/km^(2) respectively.There is a significant positive correlation between the evaluation results and the historical disaster situation(R2=0.5229).The evaluation results can provide reference for local lightning protection and disaster reduction management.