印度新晋中产阶级的发展及政治影响

India's Neo-Middle Class:Development and Political Influence

作为世界新兴经济体之一的印度,在过去20年的时间里经济、社会迅速发展,不断壮大的中产阶级不仅是印度引以为豪的主要成就,也是当前联邦执政党印度人民党最重要的选民基础.但近年来,印人党政府不断扩张的福利主义策略似乎又与亲市场经济、强调社会公平的中产阶级诉求相背离,其他主流政党也相应呈现集体的福利主义转向.本文聚焦被印人党政府创造的新概念群体——新晋中产及其政治影响,在阐述印度语境下中产概念发展变化的基础上,借助损失厌恶的分析视角尝试理解莫迪政府执政以来印人党在扩张地方政治势力版图时面临的挑战及其策略的调整.本文认为,由于政党话语建构与动员宣传,印度中产指涉范围扩大,民众对中产认知存在偏差,当今印度庞大的中产群体实际包含了大量脱离贫困的中下层民众,被印人党政府冠以新晋中产之名,后者抗风险能力弱、损失厌恶情绪显著,对政党选举动员及福利主义产品更为敏感.此外,印度亲商业大资本的发展道路倘若无法实际惠及中下层民众,当前福利扩张的路径不仅不可持续,还将长期损害印度的社会稳定和经济繁荣.

As one of the world's emerging economies,India has seen rapid economic and social development over the past two decades.The expanding middle class,a key achievement and the important voter base of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP),reflects these changes.However,the BJP's growing welfare policies increasingly diverge from the pro-market and equity-focused demands of this group,a trend mirrored by other mainstream parties'shift towards welfare populism.This paper examines the political impact of the BJP's newly defined"neo-middle class".It traces the evolution of the middle class in the Indian context and employs a loss aversion framework to analyze the challenges the BJP faces in expanding its political influence and the adjustments made under the Modi government.The paper argues that the concept of the middle class has broadened through political discourse,leading to public misconceptions.The neo-middle class,encompassing a large segment of those recently lifted out of poverty,exhibits weak risk resilience and heightened loss aversion,making them more sensitive to electoral mobilization and welfare policies.If India's probusiness development fails to benefit these lower strata,the current welfare expansion will become unsustainable,threatening long-term social stability and economic prosperity.