印度在中美博弈中的角色:战略逻辑与演进前景

India's Role in Sino-American Rivalry:Strategic Logic and Future Prospects

中美战略竞争给印度带来了战略红利.战略红利使印度对战略机遇和战略威胁的认知发生转变,并拉大了印度自我身份认知与外部角色期待之间的差距.角色理论分析框架下,鉴于印太核心国家在对印度的角色期待中并不涉及对印度某种领导型地位的接受,因而印度试图通过身份选择性切换和投机性凸显“印度教特性”来进行角色转化,并选择性地进行“全球领导型国家”的角色扮演.然而,频繁的身份切换造成了外界对印度角色认知的困扰,而印度对“印度教特性”的强调则可能强化美国对印度另一个“他者崛起”的认知,从而在深层次使美印基于“中国威胁”进行战略合作的基础复杂化.在未来,印度国际角色认知和角色扮演之间的冲突性将有所上升.

Strategic competition between Chinaaand the U.S.has presented India with strategic benefits,which in turn have altered its perceptions of both strategic opportunities and threats.This has widened the gap between India's self-identity and expectations of its external role.Using role theory as an analytical framework,the paper explores how India's desire to play a global leadership role contrasts with the limited acceptance of such a role for India by core Indo-Pacific nations.Consequently,India attempts to reshape its role through selective identity switching and strategically highlighting its"Hindu characteristics",while selectively adopting a"global leadership"role.However,frequent identity switching has caused confusion about India's role on the global stage.India's emphasis on its"Hindu characteristics"could reinforce the U.S.perception of India as an"emerging other",thereby complicating the foundational basis for U.S.-India strategic cooperation vis-d-vis the"China threat".The tension between India's self-perceptions and the role that it plays internationally will likely increase in the future.