技术预见视角下基于多源大数据的未来产业识别

Future Industry Identification Based on Multi-Source Big Data from the Perspective of Technology Foresight

[研究目的]未来产业由前沿技术驱动,通过对前沿技术成熟度的测算,有助于从技术预见视角获取未来产业的发展趋势。[研究方法]首先利用LDA模型对SCI、EI、专利、新闻报道等多源数据进行主题聚类,然后对主题归属度系数按年份统计,从而勾勒每个技术主题的发展趋势;其次通过Fisher-Pry模型对经Min-Max标准化处理后的数据进行拟合分析,以预测在2035年左右有可能发展成为未来产业的前沿技术;最后基于中美数据对两国未来产业的识别结果进行对比分析。[研究结论]基于实证分析结果,面向2035年将下一代数字技术、量子科技、光电技术、生物医药与健康、前沿新材料、先进能源、空天开发作为中国未来产业布局的技术方向。为推动未来产业发展提出三点建议:加快未来产业前沿技术的研发与突破、构建政银企社协同的前沿技术产业化投资机制以及促进未来产业各类各级人才的聚集与成长。

[Research purpose]The future industry is driven by cutting-edge technology.By measuring the maturity of cutting-edge technology,it is helpful to obtain the development trends of future industries from the perspective of technology foresight.[Research method]Firstly,the LDA topic model was used to cluster literature data such as SCI,EI,patents and news reports.Then,the topic attribution coefficient was statistically analyzed by year to form a trend evolution chart for each technical topic year by year.Secondly,the Fisher Pry model was used to fit and analyze the literature data standardized by Min Max,in order to predict that it may develop into a cutting-edge technology in the future industry around 2035.Finally,based on data from China and the United States,a comparative analysis was conducted on the technological predictions of future industries in both countries.[Research conclusion]Based on empirical analysis results,we will take next-generation digital technology,quantum technology,optoelectronic technology,biomedicine and health,cutting-edge new materials,advanced energy,and aerospace development as the technological directions for China's future industrial layout by 2035.Three suggestions are proposed to promote the development of future industries,namely accelerating the research and breakthrough of cutting-edge technology in future industry,establishing an investment mechanism for the industrialization of cutting-edge technology through government,bank,enterprise,and social cooperation,and promoting the gathering and development of various levels of talents in future industry.