基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的广东省地区生产总值预测研究

Forecast of GDP in Guangdong Province Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

地区生产总值是反映一个地区经济发展状况的重要指标之一,对其进行分析预测,可以为管理部门提供科学的决策依据,具有较好的实际参考价值。通过对广东省2014-2023年间地区生产总值建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,检验得出后验差比值C=0.1304和小误差概率P=1,预测模型精度优秀,预测平均相对误差2.49%,结果表明,未来10年广东省地区生产总值将保持平均7%的增长率健康快速发展。

The gross domestic product(GDP)is one of the most important indicators to reflect the economic development of a region,and has good practical reference value.The grey model GM(1,1)is established for GDP Guangdong Province since from 2014 to 2023.The the result shows that the posteriori error ratio is 0.1304 and the small error probability is 1.The the precision of the model is high and the average error is 2.49%.The results show that Guangdong's GDP will maintain a healthy and rapid growth rate of 7%on average in the next 2 years.