信息基础设施建设对双循环发展的影响——来自“宽带中国”战略的经验证据

Impact of Information Infrastructure Construction on Dual Circulation Development--Empirical Evidence from the"Broadband China"Strategy

以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是实现经济高质量发展和中国式现代化的必然路径。信息基础设施作为网络强国建设的“新基石”,是推动社会经济发展的战略性公共资源。在分析信息基础设施建设对双循环发展的影响及传导机制的基础上,基于2006—2022年我国284个地级市及以上城市面板数据,从内循环系统和外循环系统构建双循环发展水平指标体系,并以“宽带中国”战略作为政策冲击事件,利用多期双重差分(DID)模型,系统考察信息基础设施建设对双循环发展的影响。结果表明,信息基础设施建设能有效赋能双循环发展。经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验及内生性检验等一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。异质性检验分析发现,信息基础设施建设对双循环发展产生的显著正向影响,呈现出从西部地区到中部地区、再到东部地区,从三四五线城市到一二线城市,从外围城市到中心城市依次递增的地理梯度特征。机制检验结果表明,信息基础设施建设通过加强技术创新、提高劳动力收入、促使供应链配置多元化和提升供应链效率的渠道促进双循环发展。基于此,提出政策建议,第一,加快完善信息基础设施建设和部署,打通双循环发展的堵点。政府需要以数字中国为导向,持续升级和改造传统基础设施,完善信息基础设施建设的空间布局。第二,推进技术创新、提高劳动力收入、优化供应链配置和提升供应链效率。改善数字化、智能化发展环境,以缓解生产、分配、流通和消费的再生产环节循环信息差,推动“引进来”与“走出去”协同发展。第三,结合自身实际发展情况,采取因势利导和因情施策的政策。引导发达地区为欠发达地区提供试点政策的可行性经验和技术指导支持,欠发达地区需要结合自身产业结构特点、资源禀赋优势、地理区位条件,积极学习发达地区的经验举措,以融入全球生产网络,实现内部市场与外部市场的动态循环。

A new pattern of development that is focused on the domestic economy and features positive interplay between domestic and international economic flows is the inevitable path to achieving high-quality economic development and Chinese modernization.As the"new cornerstone"of the construction of a strong network country,information infrastructure is a strategic public resource for promoting socio-economic development.Based on the analysis of the impact of information infrastructure construction on dual circulation development and the transmission mechanism,and the panel data of 284 prefectural-level cities and above in China from 2006 to 2022,the indicator system of dual circulation development level is constructed from the inner cycle system and the outer-cycle system.Taking the"Broadband China"strategy as a policy shock event,the authors use a multi period difference-in-difference(DID)model to systematically investigate the impact of information infrastructure construction on dual circulation development.It is found that information infrastructure construction can effectively empower dual circulation development.The conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test and endogeneity test.Heterogeneity test analysis finds that the significant positive impact of information infrastructure construction on dual circulation development shows a geographical gradient,namely from the western region to the central region and then to the eastern region,from the third-fourth-fifth-tier cities to the first-second-tier cities,and from the peripheral cities to the central cities in increasing order.The results of the mechanism test show that information infrastructure construction promotes dual circulation development by strengthening technological innovation,enhancing labor income,prompting diversification of supply chain configurations,and improving supply chain efficiency.Therefore,policy recommendations are made.First,we should improve information infrastructure development and remove all impediments in double-cycle development;and the governments should,taking digital China as the guiding principle,continue to upgrade and transform traditional infrastructure and improve the spatial layout of information infrastructure construction.Second,technological innovation should be promoted,labor income should be raised,supply chain distribution should be optimized,and supply chain efficiency should be improved;and the digital and intelligent development environment should be improved to alleviate the information gap in the reproduction chain of production,distribution circulation and consumption,and the synergistic development of"bringing in"and"going out"should be promoted.And third,local governments should take into account their actual development situation and adopt policies that are favorable to the situation and tailored to the circumstances;they should guide developed regions to provide less-developed regions with feasible experience and technical guidance support for pilot policies;and the less-developed regions need to take into account the characteristics of their industrial structures,resource endowment advantages and geographical location conditions,and actively learn from the experience and initiatives of developed regions in order to integrate into the global production network and realize the dynamic cycle of the internal and external markets.