新能源汽车动力蓄电池中关键金属的开发潜力与碳减排效应研究:以海南省为例

Research on the development potential of critical metals in power batteries and carbon emission reduction effects for new energy vehicles:a case study of Hainan Province

近年来,新能源汽车产业的迅猛发展导致关键金属需求激增。同时,汽车行业的温室气体排放问题已引起学者们的广泛关注,新能源汽车的推广使用对于改善此问题具有积极作用。核算新能源汽车动力蓄电池中关键金属的开发潜力和新能源汽车的碳减排潜力可为提升城市矿产循环利用效率和落实碳减排策略的制定提供科学依据。海南省新能源乘用车保有量居全国第二位,其在推动新能源汽车发展方面发挥着示范性作用。本文基于动态物质流模型,核算了海南省2023—2050年新能源乘用车及其动力蓄电池中关键金属的需求量和回收量的未来发展趋势,评估了新能源乘用车使用过程中的碳减排潜力。研究结果表明:一是未来新能源乘用车动力蓄电池中关键金属需求量呈现快速发展模式,2023—2050年,各关键金属的累计需求量:锂4.47万~6.74万t、镍7.64万~11.51万t、钴2.65万~3.99万t、锰2.43万~3.66万t;二是未来新能源乘用车动力蓄电池中关键金属回收量将快速增加,2023—2050年,各关键金属的累计回收量:锂1.67万~2.96万t、镍3.10万~5.51万t、钴1.07万~1.91万t、锰0.99万~1.75万t;三是新能源乘用车的推广使用是有效的碳减排措施,在现有政策和发展情景下,新能源乘用车在使用过程中带来的碳减排量将在2050年达到最高值为601.03~768.65 t(消极情景)、650.32~831.79 t(保守情景)、655.35~838.19 t(积极情景)。最后,本文为关键金属的回收及碳减排策略的制定提供了相关建议。

In recent years,the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry has led to a surge in demand for critical metals.At the same time,the issue of greenhouse gas emissions in the automotive industry has attracted widespread attention from scholars,and the promotion and use of new energy vehicles play a positive role in improving this problem.Assessing the development potential of critical metals in power batteries of new energy vehicles and the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy vehicles can provide a scientific basis for improving the efficiency of urban mineral recycling and implementing carbon reduction strategies.The number of new energy passenger vehicles in Hainan Province ranks second nationwide,playing a demonstrative role in promoting the development of new energy vehicles.Based on a dynamic material flow model,this paper calculates the future development trends of the demand and recycling volume of critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2050,and assesses the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy passenger vehicles during their use.The research results show that:①the demand volume for critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in the future will show a rapid development trend.From 2023 to 2050,the cumulative demand volume for each critical metal:lithium 44700-67400 t,nickel 76400-115100 t,cobalt 26500-39900 t,manganese 24300-36600 t.②The recycling volume of critical metals in the power batteries of new energy passenger vehicles in the future will increase rapidly.From 2023 to 2050,the cumulative recycling volume for each critical metal:lithium 16700-29600 t,nickel 31000-55100 t,cobalt 10700-19100 t,manganese 9900-17500 t.③The promotion and use of new energy passenger vehicles is an effective measure for carbon emission reduction.Under the current policies and development scenarios,the carbon emission reduction volume brought about by the use of new energy passenger vehicles will reach its highest value in 2050,which is 601.03-768.65 t(pessimistic scenario),650.32-831.79 t(conservative scenario),655.35-838.19 t(positive scenario).Finally,this paper provides relevant suggestions for the formulation of recycling strategies for critical metals and carbon emission reduction strategies.