不确定中的导航:中国能源领域不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响

Navigating amid Uncertainty:The Impact of Energy Field Uncertainty in China on Total Factor Productivity of Enterprises

文章聚焦于中国能源领域不确定性对企业全要素生产率的影响,采用2012—2022年中国A股上市公司数据,以及基于文本分析构建的能源领域不确定性指数。研究发现,能源领域不确定性与上市企业全要素生产率呈现显著负相关。在高度不确定性环境下,企业可能削减投资和各项支出,从而负面影响全要素生产率。特别是在市场表现较弱的企业中,不确定性的影响更为显著,且在竞争较少或市场化程度较低的环境中,这种趋势更加普遍。随着不确定性的增加,企业更倾向于采用保守的财务策略,如增加现金储备。同时也趋向于增加研发支出以寻求长期的技术优势和市场竞争力。文章为企业决策者在制定战略时提供了重要依据,并为政策制定者提供了政策参考,以应对能源领域不确定性带来的挑战。

This paper focuses on the impact of energy field uncertainty on total factor productivity of enterprises in China,using the data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022,as well as an Energy Field Uncertainty Index constructed based on textual analysis.It is found that energy field uncertainty has a significant negative relationship with total factor productivity of listed companies.In a highly uncertain environment,enterprises may cut down on investment and various expenditures,thus negatively affecting total factor productivity.In particular,the effect of uncertainty is more pronounced among enterprises with weaker market performance,and this tendency is more prevalent in environments with less competition or less marketisation.As uncertainty increases,enterprises are more inclined to adopt conservative financial strategies,such as increasing cash reserves,and also tend to increase R&D expenditures in search of long-term technological advantages and market competitiveness.This paper provides an important basis for corporate decision makers in formulating their strategies and a policy reference for policy makers to address the challenges posed by energy-related uncertainty.