住房限购、公众预期与房价调控——来自中国热点城市房地产市场的证据

Housing Purchase Restrictions,Public Expectations,and Housing Price Control:Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Market

本文以第二轮限购政策为研究对象,使用中国热点城市2015年1月至2021年4月二手房市场数据作为研究样本,采用多期DID联立方程研究政策实施、公众预期与房价调控之间关系。研究发现:第一,限购政策无显著效果,且限价政策会导致新建住宅和二手房房价倒挂。第二,政府出台限购政策主要考虑市场交易量、房价以及公众预期三个方面,是基于房地产市场活跃程度、居民承受的房价压力和政府面对的社会压力做出的决策。第三,公众预期会存在两种效应,即非理性预期的直接效应和舆论压力引致政府非理性决策的间接效应。第四,二线城市、京津冀城市群以及土地财政依赖度较强的城市实施的限购政策效果较差。

This paper takes the second round of purchase restriction policy as the research ob-ject,uses the second-hand housing market data of Chinese hotspot cities from January 2015 to April 2021 as the research sample,and adopts multi-period difference-in-differences(DID)sim-ultaneous equations to study the relationship between policy implementation,public expectation,and housing price regulation.The findings are as follows.(1)The purchase restriction policy has no significant effect,and the price restriction policy leads to the inversion of the prices of new houses and second-hand houses.(2)The government's introduction of the purchase restric-tion policy mainly takes into account the market transaction volume,housing prices,and public expectations,and is based on the active degree of the real estate market,the pressure on housing prices borne by residents,and the social pressure faced by the government.(3)There are two effects of public expectations,i.e.,the direct effect of irrational expectations and the indirect effect of public opinion pressure leading to the government's irrational decision-making.(4)Sec-ond-tier cities,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,and cities with a strong depend-ence on land finance have implemented a less effective purchase restriction policy.