双重能源约束视角下的能源转型风险

Energy Transition Risk from the Perspective of Dual Energy Constraints

本文构建了一个投入—产出模型,以探究在化石能源存在储量上限和可再生能源生产对于化石能源存在间接依赖的双重能源约束下,能源转型是否会对全球宏观经济的发展构成显著风险。基准结果发现,化石能源生产成本的大幅提高会对可再生能源部门的投资增速产生干扰,导致可再生能源的扩张无法有效弥补化石能源生产的衰落,从而造成人均总能源消费的下降;过低的人均能源消费又会引发人口死亡率的攀升,致使劳动力成为经济发展的限制因素,出现以实际GDP的持续大幅下降为标志的显著转型风险。进一步研究发现,对可再生能源部门的投资需求施以更强的刺激,能够有效改善人口和经济产出的长期增长路径。

This paper constructs an input-output model to explore whether and how the energy transition process,from the perspective of the“dual energy constraints”of“fossil energy having a limit on reserves”and the“indirect dependence of renewable energy production on fossil energy”,poses significant risks to the global economic growth.The benchmark results indicate that a sub-stantial increase in fossil energy production costs disrupts the investment growth rate in the renew-able energy sector and leads to an ineffective compensation for the decline in fossil energy produc-tion by the expansion of renewable energy production,causing a decrease in per capita energy con-sumption levels.The low per capita energy consumption levels will lead to an increase in the mor-tality rate,making the workforce a limiting factor for economic growth and eventually causing a sig-nificant energy transition risk characterized by a sustained and substantial decline in real GDP.Further research suggests that stimulating the investment demand in the renewable energy sector can effectively improve the long-term growth paths of population and economic output.