教育-科技-人才耦合协调度研究———基于30个省级区域的实证分析

A Study on the Coupling and Coordination of Education,Technology,and Talent in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on 30 Provincial-level Regions in China

本文运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关分析和灰色关联度模型,探讨2010—2020年30个省区市(港澳台和西藏除外)教育、科技、人才的综合发展水平,以及三者的耦合协调度。研究发现:①教育、科技、人才各子系统的综合水平呈平稳增长态势,其中人才增长态势最好,教育增长态势次之,且各子系统间的发展差距逐渐减小;②三者的耦合协调度值逐年上升,从轻度失调转变为濒临失调,但区域发展不均衡,整体尚未达到融合发展的较优状态;③耦合协调度在省际层面呈显著的全局和局部自相关,空间俱乐部趋同特征明显;④根据重要性程度,驱动教育、科技、人才耦合协调的因素依次包括经济条件、产业发展、市场化程度、政府调控水平、人口规模等,但存在区域异质性。

Using the coupling coordination degree model,spatial autocorrelation analysis and gray correlation degree model,this paper explores the comprehensive development level of education,technology,and talent in 30 provincial regions(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Xizang)in China from 2010 to 2020.On this basis,we also analyze the coupling and coordination of these three subsystems.The results show that:①The comprehensive level of education,technology,and talent in China is showing a steady growth trend.Among them,the talent subsystem has the best growth trend.The growth trend of the education subsystem is second.Moreover,the development gap between various subsystems is gradually decreasing.②The overall coupling coordination degree of the three has been increasing year by year,transitioning from mild imbalance to near imbalance.However,the regional development is uneven,andthe optimal state of coordinated development among the three has not yet been reached.③The coupling and coordination of education,technology,and talent in China exhibit significant global and local autocorrelation characteristics at the provincial level.And the convergence characteristics of space clubs are obvious.④According to the degree of importance,the driving factors that affect the coupling and coordination of education,technology,and talent in China mainly include economic conditions,industrial development,degree of marketization,government regulation level,population size,etc.However,this conclusion also exhibits regional heterogeneity.