高碳排制造业发展质量提升研究——基于碳韧性的新思路

Quality Improvement of High Carbon Emission Manufacturing Development:New Ideas Based on Carbon Resilience

推动高碳排制造业低碳发展是实现制造业整体转型升级的关键。首先,考虑到高碳排制造业新的治理需求,借鉴韧性理论提出碳韧性的新概念。其次,从制度、技术、经济3个方面探究“双碳”目标下高碳排制造业面临的外部冲击,识别出稳定性、适应性和进化性三维韧性特征,基于三维韧性特征构建高碳排制造业碳韧性测度体系。最后,测算2011—2021年5个高碳排制造业的碳韧性和发展质量,通过回归分析讨论碳韧性三维特征对制造业发展质量的影响。研究发现:碳韧性对高碳排制造业发展质量提升具有显著正向影响,其中适应性影响程度最高、进化性次之、稳定性最弱。根据影响差异,从政府和行业两个视角分别提出相关政策建议。从碳韧性新视角提出高碳排制造业发展质量提升的新思路,在产业治理领域形成新研究进路。

In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,China faces the dual pressure of economic growth and environmental protection.Improving the quality of manufacturing development becomes the key to China's sustainable economic development.In fact,the manufacturing industry is facing serious challenges due to its high investment,high energy consumption and high emission development model.Thus,carbon emission reduction and green transformation have become the necessary ways to achieve the development quality improvement of China's manufacturing industry.However,China's manufacturing industry is facing multiple threats,such as rising environmental protection costs,fluctuating raw material prices and declining international competitiveness of product prices.These threats have severely constrained the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry and the quality of development.Therefore,in the context of the"dual carbon"goals,how to improve the quality of manufacturing development has become an urgent issue to be explored at present.Resilience,as the ability of the system to withstand external shocks,contributes to the system by facilitating the ability to actively respond to crises,overcome difficulties,and bounce back for improvement.It provides a new perspective and approach for the manufacturing industry to cope with the low-carbon transition and achieve quality improvement.Therefore,drawing on the general system evolution connotation of resilience,this paper proposes a new concept of carbon resilience.Carbon resilience is defined as a set of endogenous,stabilizing,adaptive,and evolutionary capacities of an industry.The shaping and enhancement of carbon resilience determines the extent to which industry accepts and adapts to the"dual carbon"development logic.Carbon resilience can be used as the underlying governance logic for the manufacturing industry in the"dual carbon"era,and governance solutions for the manufacturing industry can be proposed based on carbon resilience monitoring.In addition,to investigate whether carbon resilience has an impact on the quality of manufacturing development,the data obtained from a panel of five high-carbon emission manufacturing industries in China from 2011 to 2021 is used to construct a model to empirically test the impact of carbon resilience on the quality of manufacturing development.The findings indicate that carbon resilience includes three dimensions:stability,adaptation,and evolution.Then the evaluation index system for carbon resilience and industry development quality is constructed,respectively.By measuring and analyzing the evaluation indicator system respectively,it is found that carbon resilience of the manufacturing industry and industry development quality are both in upward trends.However,there are significant differences in their development trends over time.Finally,the study confirms that carbon resilience has a significant positive impact on the quality of industry development.However,from the perspective of three-dimensional carbon resilience characteristics,adaptability has the strongest influence on development quality,followed by evolvability and the weakest stability.In theoretical terms,this study makes three contributions.First,it proposes a new concept of carbon resilience in the special context of the"dual carbon"target and transposing the resilience theory approach.The characteristic dimensions of carbon resilience are deconstructed and the carbon resilience monitoring system for the manufacturing industry is designed,which expands the theoretical system of resilience.Second,this paper explores the impact of carbon resilience on the quality of manufacturing development,providing new ideas and perspectives on the quality of governance for a low-carbon transition in manufacturing around the world.Current research focuses on improving the quality of development in manufacturing industries from the perspectives of environmental regulation and technological innovation.This study takes carbon resilience as an entry point to explore its impact on the quality improvement of manufacturing industry development,which provides empirical evidence for using carbon resilience to improve the quality of industry development.Finally,by further exploring the differences in the impact of the three-dimensional characteristics of carbon resilience on the quality of manufacturing development,it provides an important reference for the precise design of governance strategies to improve the quality of manufacturing development.