深度老龄化省份人口老龄化城乡倒置时空演变及预测趋势

Spatial Evolution and Predictive Trends of Urban-Rural Inversion Regarding Population Aging in Provinces Experiencing Significant Aging:A Case Study of Anhui Province

人口老龄化城乡倒置现象已成为城乡协调与我国健康可持续发展面临的重要挑战。本文基于2000—2022年我国19个深度老龄化省份,剖析其人口老龄化城乡倒置的时空演变,同时运用BP时间序列预测模型对2023—2035年人口老龄化城乡倒置度进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)时序演变方面,到2020年19个深度老龄化省份均出现城乡倒置的现象,城乡倒置度年增长率在时序上具有阶段性,在空间上具有区域异质性,研究期末呈南北差异性;(2)空间分布方面,在2000—2022年期间深度老龄化省份人口老龄化城乡倒置呈现“东北—西南”方向分布,分布重心具有“先西南,后东北”的移动趋势;(3)预测趋势方面,预测2023—2035年人口老龄化城乡倒置的重心有东部地区向西部地区转移的趋势。最终,根据研究结果,提出对应建议,以期更好地应对我国未来人口老龄化城乡倒置的浪潮,推动城乡协调发展。

The urban-rural inversion regarding population aging has become a significant challenge for coordinated urban-rural development and sustainable growth in China.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of urban-rural inversion regarding population aging in 19 provinces undergoing significant aging from 2000 to 2022.Additionally,it employs the BP time series forecasting model to predict the extent of urban-rural inversion from 2023 to 2035.The research findings indicate:(1)Regarding temporal evolution,all of the 19 provinces exhibited urban-rural inversion by 2020.The annual growth rate of urban-rural inversion is characterized by temporal stages and regional heterogeneity in spatial distribution,with a noticeable disparity between the north and the south by the end of the research period.(2)Concerning spatial distribution,from 2000 to 2022,the urban-rural inversion regarding population aging in these provinces demonstrated an“Northeast-Southwest”directional trend,with the center of distribution moving progressively from southwest to northeast.(3)In terms of predictive trends,the center of urban-rural inversion is likely to shift from eastern regions to western regions from 2023 to 2035.Eventually,based on these research results,corresponding recommendations are proposed to better address the forthcoming impact of urban-rural inversion resulting population aging in China and to promote coordinated urban-rural development.