寒门何以出贵子:农村低收入群体收入跃升的机会不平等

Why Do Poor Families Produce Noble Children:Inequality of Opportunity in the Income Leap of Rural Low Income Groups

机会平等是实现低收入群体收入跃升的重要前提。本文基于2015—2021年中国社会状况综合调查数据,将“环境—努力”机会均等分析框架引入农村低收入群体收入跃升的影响因素研究中,采用相异指数衡量农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的收入机会不平等程度,运用非参数条件推断树方法测算农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的机会不平等系数,并进一步讨论了环境因素对农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的机会不平等的直接影响和间接影响。研究发现:2015—2021年,农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的机会不平等系数为0.2356—0.2925,说明农村居民收入跃升的机会不平等程度较高;农村低收入群体性别差异对机会不平等的影响最大,其次是地区和年龄。随着时间的变化,户口迁移和父母务农的农村低收入群体,机会差异对农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的影响逐渐增加;环境因素通过教育渠道和就业渠道间接影响农村低收入群体陷入低收入状态的收入机会不平等的贡献度为43.34%—55.65%,其中,教育渠道的贡献度为34.34%—43.87%,就业渠道的贡献度仅有6.07%—14.26%。本文的研究结论为更好地保障农村低收入群体发展机会平等,助力农村低收入群体收入跃升提供了理论依据。

The development of low⁃income groups,the key groups in promoting common prosperity,in rural areas has become an important proposition in the development of China’s rural society at the new stage of development.In this context,guaranteeing fair development opportunities for rural low⁃income groups and boosting their income is an important path to realizing the common prosperity of China’s rural residents.Improving the inequality of opportunity faced by rural low⁃income groups and guaranteeing their fair development opportunities are conducive to broadening the channels for low⁃income groups to increase their incomes,thus realizing the income leap of rural low⁃income groups.Existing research on assisting rural low⁃income groups mainly focuses on how to carry out regularized assistance for low⁃income groups and explore effective income⁃generating paths,but few studies explore whether and how the inequality of opportunity affects the low⁃income status of rural residents from the perspective of promoting the income leap of rural low⁃income groups.Based on the data of the CCSS,this paper introduces the“environment⁃effort”equal opportunity analytical framework into the study of factors influencing the income growth of rural low⁃income groups,adopts the dissimilarity index as a measure of inequality,and measures the impacts of rural low⁃income groups’income growth with the nonparametric conditional method.Then,it decomposes the environmental factors in the inequality of opportunity and analyzes the channels through which the environmental factors play a role in the inequality of opportunity.The coefficient of inequality of opportunity for rural residents falling into low⁃income status is 0.2356-0.2925 in the sample period of 2015-2021,indicating that the degree of inequality of opportunity for rural residents’income leap is high.In terms of the differences in characteristics,gender differences in rural low⁃income groups have the greatest impact on the inequality of opportunity,followed by region and age.The impact of opportunity differences on the rural residents who have migrated their hukou and whose parents are engaged in agriculture on their fall into low⁃income status is gradually strengthening over time.In addition,this paper analyzes the channels through which environmental factors indirectly affect individual low⁃income status through education and employment.The contribution of environmental factors indirectly affecting the overall inequality of opportunity through education and employment is 43.34%-55.65%,of which the contribution of the education channel is 34.34%-43.87%,and the contribution of the employment channel is only 6.07%-14.26%.This paper reveals the unequal opportunity status quo and its evolution law of rural low⁃income groups’income leap,which is great theoretical and practical significance for understanding rural low⁃income groups from the perspective of equal opportunity,helping the rural low⁃income groups’income leap,and then realizing the common prosperity of rural residents.