地方中小银行专项债的政策效果评估——基于中小银行风险和盈利能力视角的分析

Policy Effect Evaluation of Special Bonds of Local Small and Medium-Sized Banks——Analysis Based on the Perspective of Risk and Profitability of Small and Medium-Sized Banks

本文基于我国中小银行微观数据,使用渐进双重差分法评估中小银行专项债的政策效果。研究发现,中小银行专项债的实施能够显著降低被注资银行风险,提高利息净收入水平、提高贷款拨备率和降低同业资金比率是该政策发挥风险化解作用的主要渠道。然而,中小银行专项债的造血功能并不明显,未能有效促进被注资银行盈利能力提升,致使其内生资本积累能力依然不足,从而出现专项债注资后核心一级资本充足率反而下降的现象。这可能危及中小银行对于专项债的还本付息能力,产生中小银行专项债演化为地方新增债务的风险。此外,中小银行专项债政策效果受银行主体信用评级、业务多元化、注资模式以及地方债务压力等因素影响。本文研究对于完善中小银行经营治理、提高中小银行专项债政策效果并防范中小银行专项债因主体偿债能力不足而新增地方债务风险具有一定启示意义。

Based on the micro data of small and medium-sized banks in China,this paper uses the staggered difference-in-differences method to evaluate the policy effect of special bonds of small and medium-sized banks.The results show that the implementation of special bonds of small and medium-sized banks can significantly reduce the risks of the injected banks,and the main channels for the policy to play a risk resolution role are increasing the level of net interest income,increasing the loan provision rate and reducing the interbank fund ratio.However,the hematopoietic function of the special bonds of small and medium-sized banks is not obvious,which fails to effectively promote the profitability improvement of the injected banks,resulting in the lack of endogenous capital accumulation ability,resulting in the phenomenon that the common equity tier 1 ratio decreases after the special bonds are injected.This may endanger the ability of small and medium-sized banks to repay the principal and interest of the special bonds,resulting in the risk of the special bonds of small and medium-sized banks evolving into new local debts.In addition,the policy effect of special bonds of small and medium-sized banks is affected by the credit rating of banks,business diversification,capital injection mode and local debt pressure.This study has certain implications for improving the operation and governance of small and medium-sized banks,improving the policy effect of the special bonds of small and medium-sized banks,and preventing the new local debt risk caused by the special bonds of small and medium-sized banks due to the insufficient solvency.