地方公共预算稳定调节能力与债务风险关系研究——基于“四本预算”统筹的视角

The Relationship between the Local Public Budget Ability of Stabilization and Adjustment and Debt Risk:From the Perspective of Overall Planning Based on the“Four Parts of Government Budget”

公共预算稳定调节机制是我国2007年以来设置的跨年度预算平衡机制。笔者以2015—2021年我国内地31个省级政府为研究样本,根据现行财政预算管理体制特点,实证检验地方公共预算稳定调节能力对债务风险的影响。研究结果显示,地方公共预算稳定调节能力可显著抑制债务风险,该影响通过增强财政韧性、缓解财政压力发挥作用。且在产业结构合理化水平和数智化程度偏低的地区,地方公共预算稳定调节能力对债务风险的抑制作用更明显。进一步分析表明,公共预算稳定调节能力还可抑制债务率和增加地方政府债务限额的空间留存率,该结论对一般债务率和一般债务限额的空间留存率仍旧成立。据此建议优化预算稳定调节基金补充机制,构建预算稳定调节基金动用与债务风险的关联机制,通过财政金融的协调治理,发挥公共预算稳定调节机制对中长期债务风险波动的“调节器”作用。

The public budget stabilization adjustment mechanism is a cross-year budget balance mechanism established in China in 2007.This paper uses China s mainland provincial panel data from 2015 to 2021 and empirically tests the impact of the local public budget s ability to stabilize and adjustment on debt risk based on the characteristics of China s current fiscal budget management system.The research results show that the local public budget ability of stabilization and adjustment can significantly inhibit debt risk,which enhances fiscal resilience and alleviates fiscal pressure.Moreover,in areas with low levels of industrial structure rationalization and digitalization,the inhibitory effect of the local public budget's ability to stabilize and adjust to debt risk is more obvious.Further analysis shows that the local public budget's ability to stabilize and adjust can also inhibit the debt ratio and increase the space retention rate of the local government debt limit.This conclusion still holds for the general debt ratio and the general debt limit space retention rate.It is suggested to optimize the supplementary mechanism of the local public budget ability of stabilization and adjustment fund,and build a correlation mechanism between the use of the budget stabilization adjustment fund and debt risk.Through fiscal and financial synergy,to play the role of the public budget stabilization adjustment mechanism as a“regulator”of medium-term and long-term debt risk fluctuations.