长江经济带农业绿色发展水平的时空分异及驱动因子研究

Spatial-temporal differentiation and driving factors of agricultural green development level in the Yangtze Economic Belt

农业绿色化关乎现代农业转型升级,是高质量可持续发展的重要议题。以中国农业绿色发展典型示范区-长江经济带为研究对象,基于2001—2021年面板数据,采用熵值法、核密度估计、莫兰指数检验及地理探测器方法展开长江经济带农业绿色发展水平的时空演变特征及关键驱动因子识别。研究发现,长江经济带农业绿色发展呈稳定提升但区域差距增大的演变格局。长江经济带农业绿色发展全局呈现空间正相关性且集聚程度较高的特征,局部集聚模式以高-高型、低-高型、低-低型集聚为主。社会、政策和经济因素是长江经济带农业绿色发展时空分异形成的核心驱动因子,细化子项指标的贡献程度依次为人口密度、人均GDP、城镇化水平、财政支农政策和工业化水平,并且指标发生交互之后的作用力更强。为全面推动长江经济带农业绿色发展,建议:因地制宜促进上游农业绿色产业发展,特别是贵州、云南等山地、林地较多的滞后地区;充分发挥下游优势省份在农业绿色发展中的示范引领作用,强化其空间溢出效应;充分运用政策支持与经济激励的交互作用,促进农业新质生产力在绿色可持续发展领域的拓展。

Greening of agriculture is related to the transformation and upgradation of modern agriculture,and it is important for highquality sustainable development.In this study,the Yangtze River Economic Belt,a typical demonstration zone for agricultural green development in China,was used as the research object.Based on panel data from 2001 to 2021,the entropy method,kernel density estimation,Moran’s index test,and geographic detector methods were used to evaluate the quality and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and identify the key driving factors.The find-ings are as follows.1)Agricultural green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a stable and improving pattern,but the regional gap has increased.2)Agricultural green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a positive overall spatial correlation and a high degree of agglomeration,and the local agglomeration modes consist mainly of high-high,low-high,and low-low clusters.3)Social,policy,and economic factors are the core driving factors affecting the spatial-temporal differentiation of agricultural green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The contribution levels of the sub-indices are in the order of population density,per capita GDP,urbanization level,fiscal support policy for agriculture,and industrialization level,but the interaction of the indicators has a stronger impact.To promote the development of upstream agricultural green industry according to local conditions,especially in Guizhou,Yunnan,and other lagging areas with more mountainous and forest land,full play needs to be given to the demonstration and leading role of downstream superior provinces in agricultural green development,and their spatial spillover effect needs to be strengthened.In addition,the interaction between policy support and economic incentives need to be put to full use to promote the expansion of new quality agricultural productivity in the field of green and sustainable development.