基于多米诺效应的南京化工园区洪水Natech风险研究

Natech risk of flood in Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park based on domino effect

以南京化工园区为对象,在“浸没型”洪水背景下,开展了基于多米诺效应的洪水Natech风险评估,结果表明,在“浸没型”洪水背景下,园区内甲醇储罐泄漏的概率最大,为3.89×10^(-3)。以甲醇储罐T51和T52为对象,评估了甲醇泄漏引发的水污染和蒸气云爆炸风险,结果表明:在甲醇泄漏速率为0.62 kg/s、甲醇质量浓度边界为0.20 kg/m^(3)的条件下,泄漏1.00 h后甲醇最远可扩散至下游383.51 m处;以10%(φ)的泄漏甲醇参与蒸气云爆炸进行计算,距离储罐周边140.02 m范围内的人群将100%致死。考虑多米诺效应,当储罐T51和T52发生蒸气云爆炸时,周边T31~T50、T53和T54储罐所接收到的爆炸超压均超过失效阈值(0.03 MPa),进一步造成污染物泄漏和蒸气云爆炸事故;污染物泄漏1.00 h后,将扩散至下游约400 m处;蒸气云爆炸事故100%致死范围将扩大至377.78 m。

A flood Natech risk assessment based on the domino effect was conducted in the context of“submerged”floods in the Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park.The results indicate that under the background of“submerged”floods,methanol storage tanks exhibit the highest probability of leakage in the park 3.89×10^(-3).This paper took methanol storage tanks T51 and T52 as research objects and evaluated risks of water pollution and vapor cloud explosion caused by methanol leakage.The results show that under the conditions of a methanol leakage rate of 0.62 kg/s and a methanol mass concentration boundary of 0.20 kg/m^(3),the maximun diffusion distance of methanol reaches up to 383.51 m downstream 1.00 h after the leakage;providing that 10%(φ)of the leaked methanol participates in the vapor cloud explosion,it is calculated that the leakage will be 100%fatal for the population within a distance of 140.02 m around the storage tank.In view of the domino effect,when a vapor cloud explosion occurs in storage tanks T51 and T52,the explosion overpressure received by the surrounding storage tanks T31-T50,T53 and T54 will exceed the failure threshold(0.03 MPa),which will further cause pollutant leakage and vapor cloud explosion accidents;after 1 h of the pollutant leakage,the pollutant will spread to a distance of approximately 400 m downstream,and the 100%lethal range of the vapor cloud explosion accident will extend to 377.78 m.