绿色金融改革创新试验区的碳减排效应——基于空间溢出效应与城市异质性的视角

Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zone:From the Perspective of Spatial Spillover Effect and Urban Heterogeneity

实施绿色金融试点政策是我国自下而上完善绿色金融体系的重要举措,对于地区产业低碳转型和发展新质生产力具有重要意义。本文利用2010—2019年283个地级市的平衡面板数据,以绿色金融试点政策为切入点,采用双重差分模型和空间计量方法系统评估了实施绿色金融试点政策的碳减排效应。研究发现,绿色金融试点政策的实施显著降低了试点城市的工业碳排放总量和工业碳强度,且政策效果具有持续性和稳健性。绿色金融试点政策具有显著的空间溢出效应,即本地绿色金融试点政策的实施会对空间关联地区的碳减排产生积极影响,但施策过程中需防范污染产业转移风险。进一步研究发现,绿色金融试点政策的碳减排效应在不同区域和不同试点城市中呈现异质性。影响机制分析结果表明,绿色金融试点政策主要通过发展绿色信贷、优化能源消费结构和提升能源利用效率等方式促进地区碳减排。本文研究为我国完善绿色金融体系和实现“双碳”目标提供了实证参考。

Setting up green finance reform and innovation pilot zones is an important measure to improve the green finance system from the bottom up,which is significant for the low-carbon transformation of local industries and the green growth of local economy.Based on the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2019,this paper systematically evaluates the carbon emission reduction effect of green finance pilot policies by using the double difference model and spatial econometric method,taking the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment.The results show that the implementation of green finance pilot policy significantly reduces the total industrial carbon emissions and industrial carbon intensity of pilot cities,and the policy effect is sustainable and robust.Green finance pilot policy has a significant spatial spillover effect,that is,the implementation of local green finance pilot policy will have a positive impact on carbon emission reduction in spatially related areas,but the risk of polluting industry transfer should be prevented during the implementation.Further research shows that the carbon emission reduction effect of green finance pilot policies is heterogeneous in different regions and different pilot cities.Mechanism analysis shows that green finance pilot policies can achieve regional carbon emission reduction mainly by developing green credit,optimizing energy consumption structure and improving energy efficiency.The research provides reference for China to improve the green financial system and achieve the goals of carbon peak and neutrality.