国际供应链冲击与企业出口产品结构调整

International Supply Chain Shocks and Adjustments to Export Product Structure of Enterprises

本文在Bernard多产品一般均衡分析理论框架的基础上,通过引入成本效应和创新效应综合研究了供应链冲击对企业出口产品结构调整的影响,并基于中国微观企业数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:中间品国际供应链冲击降低了企业的核心产品出口比重,其抑制作用在高技术密集度行业企业、低经营管理效率企业以及低产业协同集聚地区企业中表现更为突出;国际供应链冲击引致的成本效应和创新效应是决定企业出口产品结构调整方向的重要诱因,成本效应挤占了企业利润空间,使得企业集中于出口利润率高的核心产品,而创新效应使得原本利润率低的边缘产品出口增加,且创新效应对边缘产品出口的正向影响显著大于成本效应对核心产品出口的正向影响;此外,集中化配置供应链网络以及提高国内市场一体化水平均有助于缓解供应链冲击。本文的研究有助于理解多产品出口企业应对供应链冲击的微观机制,为保障国内供应链、产业链安全提供有益启示。

Building upon the Bernard multi-product general equilibrium analysis the-oretical framework,this paper comprehensively examines the impact of supply chain shocks on the adjustments to corporate export product structure by incorporating both the cost effect and innovation effect,and conducts empirical tests using Chinese micro-enter-prise data based on theoretical analysis.The study finds that the international supply chain of intermediate products reduces the proportion of core product exports of enterprises.The inhibitory effect is particularly prominent in enterprises in high-tech-intensive industries,enterprises with low management efficiency,and enterprises in areas with low industrial synergy.The cost effect and innovation effect are important channels through which supply chain shocks affect the adjustments to enterprise export product structure.The cost effect squeezes out the company's profit space,causing companies to focus on exporting core products with high profit margins,while the innovation effect makes exports of peripheral products with low profit margins increase,and the positive impact of the innovation effect on peripheral product exports is significantly greater than that of the cost effect on core product exports.In addition,the centralized configuration of supply chain networks and the expansion of domestic market integration can help mitigate the impact of supply chain shocks.This study helps to identify the micro mechanism of multi-product export enterprises'response to supply chain shocks,and provides insights into securing domestic supply and industrial chains.