外需冲击、企业销售策略与双循环

External Demand Shocks,Firms'Sales Strategies,and Dual Circulation

面对国际需求的复杂波动,企业如何平衡对外贸易与国内销售,是我国外贸企业实现稳定持续发展的关键。本文以全球金融危机作为一次外需冲击,对我国企业的国内销售和出口行为进行检验,结果表明:遇到外需冲击后,企业的内外贸易销售存在“回旋镖”效应,每100元的出口下降使国内销售额提升24.75元,因此国内市场成为企业的重要缓冲;但长期来看,出口与国内销售出现协同增长效应,即同步上升的显著趋势,每100元的出口上升导致国内销售增长81.6元;新进入的企业解释了危机后(2009—2013年间)31.31%的总出口增长,因此国内外销售策略的动态变化引发了资源重新配置。为了克服因果识别问题,本文构建企业外需依存度作为工具变量,结果依然稳健。本文的研究为我国企业如何积极调整贸易销售策略,并实现国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,提供了重要的理论和经验证据。

When facing complex fluctuations in external demand,how to balance for-eign trade and domestic sales is the key to the stable and sustainable development of Chinese foreign trade enterprises.This paper employs the global financial crisis as an ex-ternal demand shock to test the domestic sales and export behavior of Chinese enterprises.We find that there exists a“boomerang”effect between enterprises'domestic sales and ex-ports in the face of external shocks.An export decrease of 100 yuan leads to a domestic sales increase of 24.75 yuan.Therefore,the domestic market serves as a cushion when encountering a negative external shock.However,in the long run,there exists a synergis-tic growth effect between domestic sales and exports,namely,a significant trend of syn-chronous growth.An export increase of 100 yuan leads to a domestic sales increase of 81.6 yuan.Further analysis finds that new entrants account for 31.31%of post-crisis(from 2009 to 2013)export growth,demonstrating that dynamic changes in domestic and export sales strategies have led to resource reallocation.To solve the endogenous problem,this paper constructs an enterprise-level exposure index to the external demand shock as the instrumental variable of enterprise-level exports,and the results remain robust.There-fore,this paper provides important theoretical and empirical evidence for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to actively adjust their trade sales strategies and for realizing the new development pattern of“taking the domestic market as the mainstay while letting internal and external markets boost each other”.