生产工序化与出口销售策略选择:兼论稳外贸的新思路

Streamlining of the Production Process and Export Sales Strategy Selection:the New Idea of Stabilizing International Trade

如何依托国内大市场优势稳定外贸发展是双循环格局下的重要课题。本文通过理论推演与实证分析探究了生产工序化对出口销售策略的影响与机制。首先,本文在多产品企业的理论框架上内生化了生产效率和产品质量,刻画了生产工序化通过提升产品生产效率并升级产品质量,稳定市场的产品销售,最终促使企业选择标准化销售策略的理论路径。其次,在准确刻画企业出口销售策略的基础上,使用工具变量、安慰剂检验等方法验证了理论假说的稳健性。机制分析表明,生产工序化有助于提高产品的生产效率并提升产品质量,证实了生产率机制和产品质量机制;进一步对影响机制的调节效应分析发现,产品复杂度、生产链位置、中间产品投入率以及技术相似度是重要的调节因素。最后,通过非参数估计进行拓展性分析,发现生产工序化对企业销售策略的影响依赖于企业出口经验的增长。本文的研究结论为当前稳外贸的重点工作提供了新思路,为国内国际两大循环的协同发展提供了政策启示。

Stabilizing foreign trade by leveraging the advantages of the domestic large market is a critical issue in the dual circulation strategy.This paper explores the impact and mechanisms of production segmentation on export sales strategies through theoretical deductions and empirical analysis.Firstly,within the theoretical framework of multi-prod-uct firms,we endogenize production efficiency and product quality,and then illustrate the theoretical path in which production process stabilizes product sales in any market by en-hancing production efficiency and product quality,and ultimately leading firms to adopt standardized sales strategies.Secondly,based on accurately characterizing firms'export sales strategies,we use instrumental variables and placebo tests to verify the robustness of our theoretical hypothesis.Mechanism analysis indicates that production process helps im-prove production efficiency and promote product quality upgrades,confirming the produc-tivity mechanism and product quality mechanism.Further analysis on the moderating effects of influencing mechanisms reveals that product complexity,production chain posi-tion,intermediate product input rate,and technological similarity are significant modera-ting factors.Finally,through non-parametric estimation for extended analysis,we find that the impact of production segmentation on firms'sales strategies depends on the growth of firms'export experience.Our research conclusions provide new insights into the current priority work of stabilizing foreign trade and offer policy implications for the coordinated development of domestic and international dual circulation.