老年人对信号交叉口行人服务水平评价建模与分析

Comparison and Analysis of Pedestrian Service Level Evaluation Modeling for the Elderly at Signalized Intersections

为分析老年人在信号交叉口人行横道的过街需求,对老年行人在通行时的服务水平进行评估,建立了基于主观评价和交叉口交通特征的老年行人服务水平评价模型。首先,通过现场观测和视频分析获取了33条信号控制人行横道的交通特征参数,并采用截断式问卷调查得到同步情况下过街老年人对行人服务水平评价主观值,初步选用基于非线性、线性和模糊线性回归模型。其次,通过基于30条人行横道的数据分析,采用皮尔逊相关系数和斯皮尔曼相关系数识别出了影响老年人过街服务水平的关键因素。最后,以关键因素为输入,对比分析非线性、线性和模糊线性3种回归模型,结果表明:多元非线性回归的老年行人服务水平评价模型在拟合度和误差方面表现更优,且验证组的3条人行横道数据进一步证实了该模型的适用性。

In order to analyze the needs of the elderly at the signalized intersection and evaluate the service level of the elderly pedestrians,a service level evaluation model based on subjective evaluation and intersection traffic characteristics was established.The traffic characteristic parameters of 33 signal-controlled crosswalks were obtained through field observation and video analysis.A truncated questionnaire was used to obtain the subjective value of pedestrian service level evaluation of the elderly crossing the street with synchronous conditions.The initial selection was based on nonlinear,linear and fuzzy linear regression models.Based on the data analysis of 30 crosswalks,Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman correlation coefficient were used to identify the key factors affecting the service level of the elderly crossing the street.Taking the key factors as input,comparing the nonlinear,linear and fuzzy linear regression models,the results showed that the multivariate nonlinear regression model of elderly pedestrian service level evaluation was better in terms of fit and error,and the data of 3 crosswalks in the verification group further confirm the applicability of the model.The research results could provide some reference for the study of traffic safety improvement strategies in the aging trend.