韧性视角下的集装箱航运网络脆弱性评估及恢复策略

Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Strategies for Container Shipping Networks from a Resilience Perspective

现有航运网络脆弱性评估方法和恢复策略存在一定局限性,主要表现为:评估方法单一,难以全面反映航运网络的复杂性;未综合考虑实际运营能力和空间距离等关键因素,导致恢复策略应对突发事件的效果不佳。针对上述问题,从拓扑结构和实际运营这2个方面对航运网络脆弱性进行了综合评价,提出了基于变异系数法多维度航运网络脆弱性评价指标,并设计了1种基于备份港口排序的恢复策略,其中,备份港口排序综合考虑了空间距离、港口运输能力和泊位数量等因素。通过引入了动态评价框架、调整脆弱性指标权重、优化备份港口选择和流量分配策略等,提升了评估与恢复策略的准确性和有效性。以2020年中欧、中地、中美东、中美西集装箱航运网络为例,构建了集装箱航运网络拓扑图,并分析了航线的脆弱性和运力波动,结果表明:采用单港口备份恢复策略时,航运网络韧性提升11.6%;采用双港口备份恢复策略时,航运网络韧性提升31.5%。综上,本文提出了集装箱航运网络脆弱性评估方法和基于备份港口排序的恢复策略,合理确定备份港口数量,实现对失效港口流量的有效重分配,为提高航运网络韧性提供了新的途径,也凸显了脆弱性评估和备份恢复策略在航运网络中的重要性。

The existing vulnerability evaluation of shipping networks and recovery strategies are suffering from two limitations.One is using a single assessment method,simplifying the complexity of the shipping network;the other is neglecting actual operational capabilities and spatial distance in recovery strategies,resulting in poor effectiveness in emergencies.To fill the gaps,a comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of the shipping network is proposed,considering the topology of the network and its actual operational capacity;multi-dimensional vulnerability evaluation indices are found based on the coefficient of variation method;recovery strategy is designed based on the backup-port rank that incorporates the spatial distance,the capacity of ports,and the number of berths.Several innovations to the model and algorithm are introduced,including a dynamic evaluation framework,adaptive weights for vulnerability indicators,and optimizations for backup port selection and traffic diversion in emergencies.To validate the proposed method,container shipping networks of China-Europe,China-Mediterranean,China-US(East Coast),and China-US(West Coast)in 2020 are introduced,topology maps of these networks are developed,and the vulnerability and dynamic capacity of these networks are analyzed.The findings show that the resilience of the shipping network is improved by 11.6%when a single port backup recovery strategy is implemented,and by 31.5%when a dual port backup recovery strategy is adopted.In summary,the proposed vulnerability assessment method and the recovery strategy based on backup-port ranking provide a novel way to improve the resilience of the shipping networks,highlighting the importance of vulnerability assessment and backup recovery strategies in shipping networks.