基于Bootstrap-物元可拓模型的高边坡施工安全韧性评价方法

An Evaluation Method for Safety Resilience of High Slope Construction Based on Bootstrap-matter-element Extension Model

为了解决传统高边坡施工安全评价中指标体系片面、取值范围模糊、实用性不强等问题,提出基于Bootstrap-物元可拓模型的高边坡施工安全韧性评价方法。结合安全韧性概念,利用关联强度方法和关键词聚类分析,初步筛选高边坡施工安全要素。通过抽样适合性检验(Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin,KMO)和多重共线性检验分别处理指标关联度和共线性问题。形成以稳定度、冗余度、效率度、适应度为一级指标,以作业人员经验等20项要素为二级指标的高边坡施工安全韧性评价指标体系,从而进一步建立高边坡施工安全韧性的关联度函数并计算各评价等级下的指标关联度;最后运用熵权法确定各安全韧性指标的权重,形成高边坡施工安全韧性评价模型。依托某高速公路的高边坡施工建设项目验证模型的可行性,并与传统的施工安全风险评估结果进行比较研究结果表明:采用本文方法的高边坡安全韧性等级为Ⅲ级,与作业条件危险性分析评价法(likelihood-exposure-consequence,LEC)法和专家调查法的风险评价结果一致。与LEC法相比,Bootstrap-物元可拓模型在准确率上提高了9.68%,在召回率上提高了5.51%,在泛化性上提高了12.09%。高边坡施工安全韧性指标体系在边坡结构等基本影响因素外纳入施工安全因素,具有更高实用性。

In order to solve the problems of one-sided index system,fuzzy value range,and weak practicability in traditional high slope construction safety evaluation,a method of safety resilience evaluation of high slope construction based on Bootstrap-matter element extension model is proposed.Combined with the concept of safety resilience,the correlation strength method and keyword cluster analysis are used to screen the safety factors of high slope construction.Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin(KMO)test and multicollinearity test are used to deal with index correlation degree and collinearity respectively.The evaluation index system of construction safety resilience of high slope is formed,which takes stability,redundancy,efficiency and fitness as the first index and operator experience and other 20 factors as the second index.The comprehensive matter-element matrix is determined according to matter-element extension principle,and the classical domain is determined by Bootstrap method to deal with the unknown sample distribution hypothesis.Furthermore,the correlation degree function is established and the index correlation degree under each evaluation grade is calculated.The weight of each safety resilience index is determined by entropy weight method,and the construction safety resilience evaluation model of high slope is formed.Based on a highway high slope construction project,the feasibility of the model is verified,and compared with the traditional construction safety risk assessment results,the results show that the safety resilience grade of the high slope is III,which is consistent with the risk assessment results of LEC method and expert investigation method.Moreover,the Bootstrap-matter-element extension model provides the overall safety resilience level and traceability analysis results.Compared with the likelihood-exposure-consequence(LEC)method,the mature-element extension model improves the accuracy by 9.68%,the recall rate by 5.51%and the generalization by 12.09%.The construction safety resilience index system of high slope includes construction safety factors in addition to the basic influencing factors such as slope structure,so it has higher practicability.